Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours, I think you’re right, Locke. It might affect accessibility, though—I know I would be sad if I logged on only to find that the discussion had closed already.
Having read through the speculation, I even found most of the chapter quite anticlimactic. Recognizing the correct predictions removed all the tension, since MOR’s tension relies so much on plotting.
That said, though, reading through the discussion gave me a harmless and very insightful lesson into how predictions work. I learned what makes a prediction probable versus plausible, in a way that not only allows me to understand it, but to think about how I would apply it to my life (I hadn’t really internalized that the percents of all possible outcomes have to add to a hundred, even though in hindsight that’s fairly obvious. I also learned about the betting-real-money threshold).
All in all, despite getting in the way of the chapter, it was a nice, closed-environment rationalist lesson. Thank you for prompting the discussion, Eliezer!
Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours,
Dude who came up with the blood debt answer did so in about fifteen minutes, actually. I was one of the ones (in #lesswrong anyhow) who suggested that Harry would destroy the Dementor for the shock-value.
Turns out EY had Harry both go over and under that prediction.
Considering that at least part of the correct solution was found within 24 hours, I think you’re right, Locke. It might affect accessibility, though—I know I would be sad if I logged on only to find that the discussion had closed already.
Having read through the speculation, I even found most of the chapter quite anticlimactic. Recognizing the correct predictions removed all the tension, since MOR’s tension relies so much on plotting.
That said, though, reading through the discussion gave me a harmless and very insightful lesson into how predictions work. I learned what makes a prediction probable versus plausible, in a way that not only allows me to understand it, but to think about how I would apply it to my life (I hadn’t really internalized that the percents of all possible outcomes have to add to a hundred, even though in hindsight that’s fairly obvious. I also learned about the betting-real-money threshold).
All in all, despite getting in the way of the chapter, it was a nice, closed-environment rationalist lesson. Thank you for prompting the discussion, Eliezer!
Dude who came up with the blood debt answer did so in about fifteen minutes, actually. I was one of the ones (in #lesswrong anyhow) who suggested that Harry would destroy the Dementor for the shock-value.
Turns out EY had Harry both go over and under that prediction.