Yes, it does depend on the selection model; my point was that the selection model you were using made the same predictions for everybody, not just Taleb. And yes, changing the selection model changes the results.
However, in both cases, you’ve chosen the selection model that supports your conclusions, whether intentionally or accidentally; in the post, you use a selection model that suggests Taleb would see a negative association. Here, in response to my observation that that selection model predicts -everybody- would see a negative association, you’ve responded with what amounts to an implication that the selection model everybody else uses produces a positive association. I observe that, additionally, you’ve changed the labeling to imply that this selection model doesn’t apply to Taleb, and “smart people” generally, but rather their fanboys.
However, if Taleb used this selection model as well, the argument presented in the main post, based on the selection model, collapses.
Do you have an argument, or evidence, for why Taleb’s selection model should be the chosen selection model, and for why people who aren’t Taleb should use this selection model instead?
However, if Taleb used this selection model as well, the argument presented in the main post, based on the selection model, collapses.
No, if I use this modified selection model for Taleb, the argument survives. For instance, suppose he is 140 IQ − 2.67 sigma above average in g. That should mean that his selection expression should be black_swan_awareness - (g-2.67)**2 * 0.5 > 1. Putting this into the simulation gives the following results:
You have a simplification in your “black swan awareness” column which I don’t think it is appropriate to carry over; in particular you’d need to rewrite the equation entirely to deal with an anti-Taleb, who doesn’t believe in black swans at all. (It also needs to deal with the issue of repricocity; if somebody doesn’t hang out with you, you can’t hang out with them.)
You probably end up with a circle, the size of which determines what trends Taleb will notice; for the size of the apparent circle used for the fan, I think Taleb will notice a slight downward trend with 100-120 IQ people, followed by a general upward trend—so being slightly smart would be negatively correlated, but being very smart would be positively correlated. Note that the absolute smartest people—off on the far right of the distribution—will observe a positive correlation, albeit a weaker one. The people absolutely most into black swan awareness—generally at the top—likewise won’t tend to notice any strong trends, but it will tend to be a weaker positive correlation. The people who are both very into black swan and awareness, and also smart, will notice a slight downward correlation, but not that strong. People who are unusually black swan un-aware, and higher-but-not-highest IQ, whatever that means, will instead notice an upward correlation.
The net effect is that a randomly chosen “smart person” will notice a slight upward correlation.
Selection-induced correlation depends on the selection model used. It is valuable to point out that tailcalled implicitly assumes a specific selection model to generate a charitable interpretation of Taleb. But proposing more complex (/ less plausible for someone to employ in their life) models instead is not likely to yield a more believable result.
Yes, it does depend on the selection model; my point was that the selection model you were using made the same predictions for everybody, not just Taleb. And yes, changing the selection model changes the results.
However, in both cases, you’ve chosen the selection model that supports your conclusions, whether intentionally or accidentally; in the post, you use a selection model that suggests Taleb would see a negative association. Here, in response to my observation that that selection model predicts -everybody- would see a negative association, you’ve responded with what amounts to an implication that the selection model everybody else uses produces a positive association. I observe that, additionally, you’ve changed the labeling to imply that this selection model doesn’t apply to Taleb, and “smart people” generally, but rather their fanboys.
However, if Taleb used this selection model as well, the argument presented in the main post, based on the selection model, collapses.
Do you have an argument, or evidence, for why Taleb’s selection model should be the chosen selection model, and for why people who aren’t Taleb should use this selection model instead?
No, if I use this modified selection model for Taleb, the argument survives. For instance, suppose he is 140 IQ − 2.67 sigma above average in g. That should mean that his selection expression should be black_swan_awareness - (g-2.67)**2 * 0.5 > 1. Putting this into the simulation gives the following results:
You have a simplification in your “black swan awareness” column which I don’t think it is appropriate to carry over; in particular you’d need to rewrite the equation entirely to deal with an anti-Taleb, who doesn’t believe in black swans at all. (It also needs to deal with the issue of repricocity; if somebody doesn’t hang out with you, you can’t hang out with them.)
You probably end up with a circle, the size of which determines what trends Taleb will notice; for the size of the apparent circle used for the fan, I think Taleb will notice a slight downward trend with 100-120 IQ people, followed by a general upward trend—so being slightly smart would be negatively correlated, but being very smart would be positively correlated. Note that the absolute smartest people—off on the far right of the distribution—will observe a positive correlation, albeit a weaker one. The people absolutely most into black swan awareness—generally at the top—likewise won’t tend to notice any strong trends, but it will tend to be a weaker positive correlation. The people who are both very into black swan and awareness, and also smart, will notice a slight downward correlation, but not that strong. People who are unusually black swan un-aware, and higher-but-not-highest IQ, whatever that means, will instead notice an upward correlation.
The net effect is that a randomly chosen “smart person” will notice a slight upward correlation.
I’m not sure what you are saying, could you create a simulation or something?
Selection-induced correlation depends on the selection model used. It is valuable to point out that tailcalled implicitly assumes a specific selection model to generate a charitable interpretation of Taleb. But proposing more complex (/ less plausible for someone to employ in their life) models instead is not likely to yield a more believable result.
Did you mean to write your comment in response to ACrackedPot, rather than to me?