You have a simplification in your “black swan awareness” column which I don’t think it is appropriate to carry over; in particular you’d need to rewrite the equation entirely to deal with an anti-Taleb, who doesn’t believe in black swans at all. (It also needs to deal with the issue of repricocity; if somebody doesn’t hang out with you, you can’t hang out with them.)
You probably end up with a circle, the size of which determines what trends Taleb will notice; for the size of the apparent circle used for the fan, I think Taleb will notice a slight downward trend with 100-120 IQ people, followed by a general upward trend—so being slightly smart would be negatively correlated, but being very smart would be positively correlated. Note that the absolute smartest people—off on the far right of the distribution—will observe a positive correlation, albeit a weaker one. The people absolutely most into black swan awareness—generally at the top—likewise won’t tend to notice any strong trends, but it will tend to be a weaker positive correlation. The people who are both very into black swan and awareness, and also smart, will notice a slight downward correlation, but not that strong. People who are unusually black swan un-aware, and higher-but-not-highest IQ, whatever that means, will instead notice an upward correlation.
The net effect is that a randomly chosen “smart person” will notice a slight upward correlation.
Selection-induced correlation depends on the selection model used. It is valuable to point out that tailcalled implicitly assumes a specific selection model to generate a charitable interpretation of Taleb. But proposing more complex (/ less plausible for someone to employ in their life) models instead is not likely to yield a more believable result.
You have a simplification in your “black swan awareness” column which I don’t think it is appropriate to carry over; in particular you’d need to rewrite the equation entirely to deal with an anti-Taleb, who doesn’t believe in black swans at all. (It also needs to deal with the issue of repricocity; if somebody doesn’t hang out with you, you can’t hang out with them.)
You probably end up with a circle, the size of which determines what trends Taleb will notice; for the size of the apparent circle used for the fan, I think Taleb will notice a slight downward trend with 100-120 IQ people, followed by a general upward trend—so being slightly smart would be negatively correlated, but being very smart would be positively correlated. Note that the absolute smartest people—off on the far right of the distribution—will observe a positive correlation, albeit a weaker one. The people absolutely most into black swan awareness—generally at the top—likewise won’t tend to notice any strong trends, but it will tend to be a weaker positive correlation. The people who are both very into black swan and awareness, and also smart, will notice a slight downward correlation, but not that strong. People who are unusually black swan un-aware, and higher-but-not-highest IQ, whatever that means, will instead notice an upward correlation.
The net effect is that a randomly chosen “smart person” will notice a slight upward correlation.
I’m not sure what you are saying, could you create a simulation or something?
Selection-induced correlation depends on the selection model used. It is valuable to point out that tailcalled implicitly assumes a specific selection model to generate a charitable interpretation of Taleb. But proposing more complex (/ less plausible for someone to employ in their life) models instead is not likely to yield a more believable result.
Did you mean to write your comment in response to ACrackedPot, rather than to me?