At current pace you have 1-2 months before the peak, and the booster takes a week to work. There’s basically no chance as a non-prioritized person you’ll be able to get an Omicron booster in that time frame.
This seems right, but also interested in whether boosters might be net-harmful v.s. nothing.
Does original antigenic sin also mean that e.g. your body would have a harder time fighting off omicron if infected, because rather than developing new antibodies it would just keep trying to deploy the old ones?
If we have data that boosters reduce severity for omicron, that would seem to answer this. But do we?
Again, I did not look into much detail—so feel free to look at zvi’s newer post with some updated data—but overall weight seems in favor of booster more than when I made this comment.
Thanks, I’ve seen a number of experts suggest that people get booster shots ASAP, but without any explicit reasoning attached. To push back a bit on this, it looks like Omicron will soon become the dominant variant almost everywhere, so subsequent variants will probably branch off it. So it might be worth taking additional precautions during the Omicron peak, and then get an Omicron-specific booster when it comes out to be better protected against future Omicron-branch variants. As mentioned in another comment, I’m waiting for some additional data to come out before making this decision.
Omicron will soon become the dominant variant almost everywhere, so subsequent variants will probably branch off it.
I don’t think you’re wrong, but it is worth noting that Omicron itself violated this guess; it is defended from the original strain, not any other Greek-lettered variant.
I’m sorry—I don’t understand how your comment responds to mine. I pointed to the fact that Omicron outcompeting Delta without being descended from Delta indicated that a successor to Omicron could perhaps not be descended from Omicron. In particular, I agree with you that Omicron will become the dominant variant almost everywhere.
One minor detail: It is implausible that Omicron’s competitive advantage is primarily derived from an increased R0 (that would give it a higher R0 than measles); rather, its observed fitness against the competition is more easily explained by some measure of immunity evasion (which won’t be measured in increased R0).
There’s also the question of whether this is very important and warrents unconvential action in which case making your own vaccines with Stöcker’s formula and actually using the Omicron spike protein might be warrented.
At current pace you have 1-2 months before the peak, and the booster takes a week to work. There’s basically no chance as a non-prioritized person you’ll be able to get an Omicron booster in that time frame.
This seems right, but also interested in whether boosters might be net-harmful v.s. nothing.
Does original antigenic sin also mean that e.g. your body would have a harder time fighting off omicron if infected, because rather than developing new antibodies it would just keep trying to deploy the old ones?
If we have data that boosters reduce severity for omicron, that would seem to answer this. But do we?
I have not looked into much, but saw what looks like more evidence that boosters do help: https://mobile.twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1469448926562455555
Again, I did not look into much detail—so feel free to look at zvi’s newer post with some updated data—but overall weight seems in favor of booster more than when I made this comment.
Very interested in this question as well.
Thanks, I’ve seen a number of experts suggest that people get booster shots ASAP, but without any explicit reasoning attached. To push back a bit on this, it looks like Omicron will soon become the dominant variant almost everywhere, so subsequent variants will probably branch off it. So it might be worth taking additional precautions during the Omicron peak, and then get an Omicron-specific booster when it comes out to be better protected against future Omicron-branch variants. As mentioned in another comment, I’m waiting for some additional data to come out before making this decision.
I don’t think you’re wrong, but it is worth noting that Omicron itself violated this guess; it is defended from the original strain, not any other Greek-lettered variant.
But note the R0 for Omicron. It seems to be able blow the competition away in any location it establishes.
I’m sorry—I don’t understand how your comment responds to mine. I pointed to the fact that Omicron outcompeting Delta without being descended from Delta indicated that a successor to Omicron could perhaps not be descended from Omicron. In particular, I agree with you that Omicron will become the dominant variant almost everywhere.
One minor detail: It is implausible that Omicron’s competitive advantage is primarily derived from an increased R0 (that would give it a higher R0 than measles); rather, its observed fitness against the competition is more easily explained by some measure of immunity evasion (which won’t be measured in increased R0).
There’s also the question of whether this is very important and warrents unconvential action in which case making your own vaccines with Stöcker’s formula and actually using the Omicron spike protein might be warrented.