Omicron will soon become the dominant variant almost everywhere, so subsequent variants will probably branch off it.
I don’t think you’re wrong, but it is worth noting that Omicron itself violated this guess; it is defended from the original strain, not any other Greek-lettered variant.
I’m sorry—I don’t understand how your comment responds to mine. I pointed to the fact that Omicron outcompeting Delta without being descended from Delta indicated that a successor to Omicron could perhaps not be descended from Omicron. In particular, I agree with you that Omicron will become the dominant variant almost everywhere.
One minor detail: It is implausible that Omicron’s competitive advantage is primarily derived from an increased R0 (that would give it a higher R0 than measles); rather, its observed fitness against the competition is more easily explained by some measure of immunity evasion (which won’t be measured in increased R0).
I don’t think you’re wrong, but it is worth noting that Omicron itself violated this guess; it is defended from the original strain, not any other Greek-lettered variant.
But note the R0 for Omicron. It seems to be able blow the competition away in any location it establishes.
I’m sorry—I don’t understand how your comment responds to mine. I pointed to the fact that Omicron outcompeting Delta without being descended from Delta indicated that a successor to Omicron could perhaps not be descended from Omicron. In particular, I agree with you that Omicron will become the dominant variant almost everywhere.
One minor detail: It is implausible that Omicron’s competitive advantage is primarily derived from an increased R0 (that would give it a higher R0 than measles); rather, its observed fitness against the competition is more easily explained by some measure of immunity evasion (which won’t be measured in increased R0).