Top top-50 metaculus user is an ambigious term. Metuculus’s public metric that has little to do with how good someone is at predicting Metaculus questions but with how many predictions people make.
Metaculus decides against releasing something like top 100 metaculus users based on their Briers score that have at least 100 resolved predictions.
If Metaculus would actually decide to care about Briers score when scoring people you might actually lose your status. Writing this I’m curious about what your username on Metaculus happens to be as it might be worth to spend the tachyons to figure out how good you are at making metaculus predictions.
Both of those metrics heavily depend on question selection, so it’s difficult to compare people directly. But neither have to do with volume of questions.
As a top-50 metaculuser, I endorse all proposals that give me more status.
Top top-50 metaculus user is an ambigious term. Metuculus’s public metric that has little to do with how good someone is at predicting Metaculus questions but with how many predictions people make.
Metaculus decides against releasing something like top 100 metaculus users based on their Briers score that have at least 100 resolved predictions.
If Metaculus would actually decide to care about Briers score when scoring people you might actually lose your status. Writing this I’m curious about what your username on Metaculus happens to be as it might be worth to spend the tachyons to figure out how good you are at making metaculus predictions.
https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/
My current all-time brier is .1 vs .129 for metaculus prediction and .124 for community prediction on the same questions.
I’m also in the top 20 in points per question on https://metaculusextras.com/points_per_question
Both of those metrics heavily depend on question selection, so it’s difficult to compare people directly. But neither have to do with volume of questions.
Yes, those metrics seem to indicate that you would actually gain status with broad knowledge of your prediction performance ;)
That’s suprising to me. I thought the metaculus prediction is generally better then the community prediction?