https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/
My current all-time brier is .1 vs .129 for metaculus prediction and .124 for community prediction on the same questions.
I’m also in the top 20 in points per question on https://metaculusextras.com/points_per_question
Both of those metrics heavily depend on question selection, so it’s difficult to compare people directly. But neither have to do with volume of questions.
Yes, those metrics seem to indicate that you would actually gain status with broad knowledge of your prediction performance ;)
.129 for metaculus prediction and .124
That’s suprising to me. I thought the metaculus prediction is generally better then the community prediction?
https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/
My current all-time brier is .1 vs .129 for metaculus prediction and .124 for community prediction on the same questions.
I’m also in the top 20 in points per question on https://metaculusextras.com/points_per_question
Both of those metrics heavily depend on question selection, so it’s difficult to compare people directly. But neither have to do with volume of questions.
Yes, those metrics seem to indicate that you would actually gain status with broad knowledge of your prediction performance ;)
That’s suprising to me. I thought the metaculus prediction is generally better then the community prediction?