For example, if you for some period in the beginning forecasted 70% probability of A and 30% of B and then mid way through the question get new data indicating that B is actually 70% likely, you might not want to put 70% but some higher percentage to compensate for the period before having a too low probability
As it happens, I don’t think that’s the case. Like, ignoring the issues in the post/paper, the Brier score is proper, and this is regardless of how many points you’ve lost in the past.
Yeah I’m not too confident about it, i did not spend time looking into it. But I think it is >30% likely you can compensate for past over or under estimations.
As it happens, I don’t think that’s the case. Like, ignoring the issues in the post/paper, the Brier score is proper, and this is regardless of how many points you’ve lost in the past.
Yeah I’m not too confident about it, i did not spend time looking into it. But I think it is >30% likely you can compensate for past over or under estimations.
I’d bet against that at 1:5, i.e., against the proposition that the optimal forecast is not subject to your previous history