Which of 1, 2 and 3 do you disagree with in this case?
Edit: I mean, I’m sorry to parody but I don’t really want to carefully rehash the entire thing, so, from my perspective, Holden just said, “But surely strong AI will fall into the reference class of technology used to give users advice, just like Google Maps doesn’t drive your car; this is where all technology tends to go, so I’m really skeptical about discussing any other possibility.” Only Holden has argued to SI that strong AI falls into this particular reference class so far as I can recall, with many other people having their own favored reference classes e.g. Hanson et. al as cited above; a strong AI is far more internally dissimilar from Google Maps and Yelp than Google Maps and Yelp are internally similar to each other, plus there are many many other software programs that don’t provide advice at all so arguably the whole class may be chosen-post-facto; and I’d have to look up Holden’s exact words and replies to e.g. Jaan Tallinn to decide to what degree, if any, he used the analogy to foreclose other possibilities conversationally without further debate, but I do think it happened a little, but less so and less explicitly than in my Robin Hanson debate. If you don’t think I should at this point diverge into explaining the concept of “reference class tennis”, how should the conversation proceed further?
Also, further opinions desired on whether I was being rude, whether logically rude or otherwise.
Viewed charitably, you were not being rude, although you did veer away from your main point in ways likely to be unproductive. (For example, being unnecessarily dismissive towards Hanson, who you’d previously stated had given arguments roughly as good as Holden’s; or spending so much of your final paragraph emphasizing Holden’s lack of knowledge regarding AI.)
On the most likely viewing, it looks like you thought Holden was probably playing reference class tennis. This would have been rude, because it would imply that you thought the following inaccurate things about him:
He was “taking his reference class and going home”
That you can’t “have a back-and-forth conversation” with him
I don’t think that you intended those implications. All the same, your final comment came across as noticeably less well-written than your post.
Which of 1, 2 and 3 do you disagree with in this case?
Edit: I mean, I’m sorry to parody but I don’t really want to carefully rehash the entire thing, so, from my perspective, Holden just said, “But surely strong AI will fall into the reference class of technology used to give users advice, just like Google Maps doesn’t drive your car; this is where all technology tends to go, so I’m really skeptical about discussing any other possibility.” Only Holden has argued to SI that strong AI falls into this particular reference class so far as I can recall, with many other people having their own favored reference classes e.g. Hanson et. al as cited above; a strong AI is far more internally dissimilar from Google Maps and Yelp than Google Maps and Yelp are internally similar to each other, plus there are many many other software programs that don’t provide advice at all so arguably the whole class may be chosen-post-facto; and I’d have to look up Holden’s exact words and replies to e.g. Jaan Tallinn to decide to what degree, if any, he used the analogy to foreclose other possibilities conversationally without further debate, but I do think it happened a little, but less so and less explicitly than in my Robin Hanson debate. If you don’t think I should at this point diverge into explaining the concept of “reference class tennis”, how should the conversation proceed further?
Also, further opinions desired on whether I was being rude, whether logically rude or otherwise.
Viewed charitably, you were not being rude, although you did veer away from your main point in ways likely to be unproductive. (For example, being unnecessarily dismissive towards Hanson, who you’d previously stated had given arguments roughly as good as Holden’s; or spending so much of your final paragraph emphasizing Holden’s lack of knowledge regarding AI.)
On the most likely viewing, it looks like you thought Holden was probably playing reference class tennis. This would have been rude, because it would imply that you thought the following inaccurate things about him:
He was “taking his reference class and going home”
That you can’t “have a back-and-forth conversation” with him
I don’t think that you intended those implications. All the same, your final comment came across as noticeably less well-written than your post.
Thanks for the third-party opinion!