(2) that the actual thing is obviously more dissimilar to all the cited previous elements of the so-called reference class than all those elements are similar to each other (if they even form a natural category at all rather than having being picked out retrospectively based on similarity of outcome to the preferred conclusion);
Ok, it seems like under this definition of “reference class tennis” (particularly parts (2) and (3)) the participants must be wrong and behaving irrationality about it in order to be playing reference class tennis. So when they are either right or at least applying “outside view” considerations correctly, given all the information available to them they aren’t actually playing “reference class tennis” but instead doing whatever it is that reasoning (boundedly) correctly using reference to actual relevant evidence about related occurrences is called when it isn’t packaged with irrational wrongness.
With this definition in mind it is necessary to translate replies such as those here by Holden:
We seem to have differing views of how to best do what you call “reference class tennis” and how useful it can be. I’ll probably be writing about my views more in the future.
Holden’s meaning is, of course, not that that he argues is actually a good thing but rather declaring that the label doesn’t apply to what he is doing. He is instead doing that other thing that is actually sound thinking and thinks people are correct to do so.
Come to think of it if most people in Holden’s shoes heard Eliezer accuse them of “reference class tennis” and actually knew that he intended it with the meaning he explicitly defines here rather than the one they infer from context they would probably just consider him arrogant, rude and mind killed then write him and his organisation off as not worth engaging with.
In the vast majority of cases where I have previously seen Eliezer argue against people using “outside view” I have agreed with Eliezer, and have grown rather fond of using the phrase “reference class tennis” as a reply myself where appropriate. But seeing how far Eliezer has taken the anti-outside-view position here and the extent to which “reference class tennis” is defined as purely an anti-outside-view semantic stop sign I’ll be far more hesitant to make us of it myself.
It is tempting to observe “Eliezer is almost always right when he argues against ‘outside view’ applications, and the other people are all confused. He is currently arguing against ‘outside view’ applications. Therefore, the other people are probably confused.” To that I reply either “Reference class tennis!” or “F*$% you, I’m right and you’re wrong!” (I’m honestly not sure which is the least offensive.)
Which of 1, 2 and 3 do you disagree with in this case?
Edit: I mean, I’m sorry to parody but I don’t really want to carefully rehash the entire thing, so, from my perspective, Holden just said, “But surely strong AI will fall into the reference class of technology used to give users advice, just like Google Maps doesn’t drive your car; this is where all technology tends to go, so I’m really skeptical about discussing any other possibility.” Only Holden has argued to SI that strong AI falls into this particular reference class so far as I can recall, with many other people having their own favored reference classes e.g. Hanson et. al as cited above; a strong AI is far more internally dissimilar from Google Maps and Yelp than Google Maps and Yelp are internally similar to each other, plus there are many many other software programs that don’t provide advice at all so arguably the whole class may be chosen-post-facto; and I’d have to look up Holden’s exact words and replies to e.g. Jaan Tallinn to decide to what degree, if any, he used the analogy to foreclose other possibilities conversationally without further debate, but I do think it happened a little, but less so and less explicitly than in my Robin Hanson debate. If you don’t think I should at this point diverge into explaining the concept of “reference class tennis”, how should the conversation proceed further?
Also, further opinions desired on whether I was being rude, whether logically rude or otherwise.
Viewed charitably, you were not being rude, although you did veer away from your main point in ways likely to be unproductive. (For example, being unnecessarily dismissive towards Hanson, who you’d previously stated had given arguments roughly as good as Holden’s; or spending so much of your final paragraph emphasizing Holden’s lack of knowledge regarding AI.)
On the most likely viewing, it looks like you thought Holden was probably playing reference class tennis. This would have been rude, because it would imply that you thought the following inaccurate things about him:
He was “taking his reference class and going home”
That you can’t “have a back-and-forth conversation” with him
I don’t think that you intended those implications. All the same, your final comment came across as noticeably less well-written than your post.
I’m confused how you thought “reference class tennis” was anything but a slur on the other side’s argument. Likewise “mindkilled.” Sometimes, slurs about arguments are justified (agnostic in the instant case) - but that’s a separate issue.
Ok, it seems like under this definition of “reference class tennis” (particularly parts (2) and (3)) the participants must be wrong and behaving irrationality about it in order to be playing reference class tennis. So when they are either right or at least applying “outside view” considerations correctly, given all the information available to them they aren’t actually playing “reference class tennis” but instead doing whatever it is that reasoning (boundedly) correctly using reference to actual relevant evidence about related occurrences is called when it isn’t packaged with irrational wrongness.
With this definition in mind it is necessary to translate replies such as those here by Holden:
Holden’s meaning is, of course, not that that he argues is actually a good thing but rather declaring that the label doesn’t apply to what he is doing. He is instead doing that other thing that is actually sound thinking and thinks people are correct to do so.
Come to think of it if most people in Holden’s shoes heard Eliezer accuse them of “reference class tennis” and actually knew that he intended it with the meaning he explicitly defines here rather than the one they infer from context they would probably just consider him arrogant, rude and mind killed then write him and his organisation off as not worth engaging with.
In the vast majority of cases where I have previously seen Eliezer argue against people using “outside view” I have agreed with Eliezer, and have grown rather fond of using the phrase “reference class tennis” as a reply myself where appropriate. But seeing how far Eliezer has taken the anti-outside-view position here and the extent to which “reference class tennis” is defined as purely an anti-outside-view semantic stop sign I’ll be far more hesitant to make us of it myself.
It is tempting to observe “Eliezer is almost always right when he argues against ‘outside view’ applications, and the other people are all confused. He is currently arguing against ‘outside view’ applications. Therefore, the other people are probably confused.” To that I reply either “Reference class tennis!” or “F*$% you, I’m right and you’re wrong!” (I’m honestly not sure which is the least offensive.)
Which of 1, 2 and 3 do you disagree with in this case?
Edit: I mean, I’m sorry to parody but I don’t really want to carefully rehash the entire thing, so, from my perspective, Holden just said, “But surely strong AI will fall into the reference class of technology used to give users advice, just like Google Maps doesn’t drive your car; this is where all technology tends to go, so I’m really skeptical about discussing any other possibility.” Only Holden has argued to SI that strong AI falls into this particular reference class so far as I can recall, with many other people having their own favored reference classes e.g. Hanson et. al as cited above; a strong AI is far more internally dissimilar from Google Maps and Yelp than Google Maps and Yelp are internally similar to each other, plus there are many many other software programs that don’t provide advice at all so arguably the whole class may be chosen-post-facto; and I’d have to look up Holden’s exact words and replies to e.g. Jaan Tallinn to decide to what degree, if any, he used the analogy to foreclose other possibilities conversationally without further debate, but I do think it happened a little, but less so and less explicitly than in my Robin Hanson debate. If you don’t think I should at this point diverge into explaining the concept of “reference class tennis”, how should the conversation proceed further?
Also, further opinions desired on whether I was being rude, whether logically rude or otherwise.
Viewed charitably, you were not being rude, although you did veer away from your main point in ways likely to be unproductive. (For example, being unnecessarily dismissive towards Hanson, who you’d previously stated had given arguments roughly as good as Holden’s; or spending so much of your final paragraph emphasizing Holden’s lack of knowledge regarding AI.)
On the most likely viewing, it looks like you thought Holden was probably playing reference class tennis. This would have been rude, because it would imply that you thought the following inaccurate things about him:
He was “taking his reference class and going home”
That you can’t “have a back-and-forth conversation” with him
I don’t think that you intended those implications. All the same, your final comment came across as noticeably less well-written than your post.
Thanks for the third-party opinion!
I’m confused how you thought “reference class tennis” was anything but a slur on the other side’s argument. Likewise “mindkilled.” Sometimes, slurs about arguments are justified (agnostic in the instant case) - but that’s a separate issue.