“End of the reference class” is not extinction, the class could end in differently. For any question we ask we simultaneously define reference class and what we mean by its ending.
In your example of fire, wheels and lenses: imagine that humanity will experience a very long period civilizational decline. Lens will disappear first, wheels seconds and fire will be the last in million of years. It is a boring but plausible apocalypse.
Possible, sure. But the implication of inference from these reference classes is that this future with a long period of civilizational decline is the only likely one—that some catastrophic end in the near future is pretty much ruled out. Much as I’d like to believe that, I don’t think one can actually infer that from the history of fire, wheels, and lenses.
“End of the reference class” is not extinction, the class could end in differently. For any question we ask we simultaneously define reference class and what we mean by its ending.
In your example of fire, wheels and lenses: imagine that humanity will experience a very long period civilizational decline. Lens will disappear first, wheels seconds and fire will be the last in million of years. It is a boring but plausible apocalypse.
Possible, sure. But the implication of inference from these reference classes is that this future with a long period of civilizational decline is the only likely one—that some catastrophic end in the near future is pretty much ruled out. Much as I’d like to believe that, I don’t think one can actually infer that from the history of fire, wheels, and lenses.