Most of the variance I’ve seen discussed comes from a severe change in the tech labor market producing a severe change in the housing market in the Bay Area, Seattle, etc. Did you intentionally or unintentionally leave out the effects of COVID? Or are they wrapped up in black swans?
I must admit I haven’t followed the discussions you’re referring to but if I were to spend more time forecasting this question I would look into them.
I didn’t include effects of COVID in my forecast as it looks like the Zillow Home Value Index for Seattle has remained relatively steady since March (2% drop). I’m skeptical that there are likely to be large effects from COVID in the future when there hasn’t been a large effect from COVID thus far,
A few reasons I could be wrong:
Zillow data is inaccurate or incomplete, or I’m interpreting it incorrectly.
COVID affects variation of individual housing prices much more than the trend of the city as a whole.
The COVID effects will be much bigger in the next half of a year than in the previous. Perhaps there will be a second wave much worse than the market is pricing in which produces large effects.
Cool deal. The reason I asked about black swans was specifically because of the potential permanent shift in companies’ allowance or even desire for remote work. Chance seems low but significant, impact seems modest with a chance of large.
Most of the variance I’ve seen discussed comes from a severe change in the tech labor market producing a severe change in the housing market in the Bay Area, Seattle, etc. Did you intentionally or unintentionally leave out the effects of COVID? Or are they wrapped up in black swans?
I must admit I haven’t followed the discussions you’re referring to but if I were to spend more time forecasting this question I would look into them.
I didn’t include effects of COVID in my forecast as it looks like the Zillow Home Value Index for Seattle has remained relatively steady since March (2% drop). I’m skeptical that there are likely to be large effects from COVID in the future when there hasn’t been a large effect from COVID thus far,
A few reasons I could be wrong:
Zillow data is inaccurate or incomplete, or I’m interpreting it incorrectly.
COVID affects variation of individual housing prices much more than the trend of the city as a whole.
The COVID effects will be much bigger in the next half of a year than in the previous. Perhaps there will be a second wave much worse than the market is pricing in which produces large effects.
Cool deal. The reason I asked about black swans was specifically because of the potential permanent shift in companies’ allowance or even desire for remote work. Chance seems low but significant, impact seems modest with a chance of large.