I must admit I haven’t followed the discussions you’re referring to but if I were to spend more time forecasting this question I would look into them.
I didn’t include effects of COVID in my forecast as it looks like the Zillow Home Value Index for Seattle has remained relatively steady since March (2% drop). I’m skeptical that there are likely to be large effects from COVID in the future when there hasn’t been a large effect from COVID thus far,
A few reasons I could be wrong:
Zillow data is inaccurate or incomplete, or I’m interpreting it incorrectly.
COVID affects variation of individual housing prices much more than the trend of the city as a whole.
The COVID effects will be much bigger in the next half of a year than in the previous. Perhaps there will be a second wave much worse than the market is pricing in which produces large effects.
Cool deal. The reason I asked about black swans was specifically because of the potential permanent shift in companies’ allowance or even desire for remote work. Chance seems low but significant, impact seems modest with a chance of large.
I must admit I haven’t followed the discussions you’re referring to but if I were to spend more time forecasting this question I would look into them.
I didn’t include effects of COVID in my forecast as it looks like the Zillow Home Value Index for Seattle has remained relatively steady since March (2% drop). I’m skeptical that there are likely to be large effects from COVID in the future when there hasn’t been a large effect from COVID thus far,
A few reasons I could be wrong:
Zillow data is inaccurate or incomplete, or I’m interpreting it incorrectly.
COVID affects variation of individual housing prices much more than the trend of the city as a whole.
The COVID effects will be much bigger in the next half of a year than in the previous. Perhaps there will be a second wave much worse than the market is pricing in which produces large effects.
Cool deal. The reason I asked about black swans was specifically because of the potential permanent shift in companies’ allowance or even desire for remote work. Chance seems low but significant, impact seems modest with a chance of large.