We can also use our new framework for understanding the No True Scotsman fallacy. Alice isn’t equivocating between two definitions of Blue. She is consistently using “Blue” to mean “supporting cuddling puppies”. It is, in fact, Bob who is equivocating between “Blue” meaning “supporting giving psychotic monkeys control over the economy” and “Blue” meaning “supporting cuddling puppies”.
This seems to be assuming that coalitions don’t exist. Suppose Alice starts a puppy-cuddling club. How likely is this to get filled with Blues? And how likely are those Blues to start strategizing about how to give psychotic monkeys control over the economy? My expectation would be that it’s a lot higher than the base rate, but how much probably depends a lot on many factors, such as how Blue-coded puppy-cuddling is and how many Blues support psychotic monkey economy Czars.
Alice’s puppy-cuddling club could include a social norm against giving psychotic monkeys control over the economy. In fact, in every real-life example of this fallacy coming to mind, the puppy-cuddlers and the psychotic-monkey economy-Czarists are different factions who hate each other.
Maybe this applies in most cases? I don’t know, I’ve worked on making communities for puppy-cuddlers where I’ve thought they ended too psychotic-monkey-Czarist in the end. At the very least, it seems unfair to ignore the fact that a Blue coalition does exist, even if Bob is also overreacting in his accusations.
This seems to be assuming that coalitions don’t exist. Suppose Alice starts a puppy-cuddling club. How likely is this to get filled with Blues? And how likely are those Blues to start strategizing about how to give psychotic monkeys control over the economy? My expectation would be that it’s a lot higher than the base rate, but how much probably depends a lot on many factors, such as how Blue-coded puppy-cuddling is and how many Blues support psychotic monkey economy Czars.
Alice’s puppy-cuddling club could include a social norm against giving psychotic monkeys control over the economy. In fact, in every real-life example of this fallacy coming to mind, the puppy-cuddlers and the psychotic-monkey economy-Czarists are different factions who hate each other.
Maybe this applies in most cases? I don’t know, I’ve worked on making communities for puppy-cuddlers where I’ve thought they ended too psychotic-monkey-Czarist in the end. At the very least, it seems unfair to ignore the fact that a Blue coalition does exist, even if Bob is also overreacting in his accusations.