Germany seems to be stopping Omicron in its tracks. Hospital admissions are down and cases are also down. I notice I am confused here. Germany’s rate of improvement under Delta wasn’t that rapid, so it shouldn’t have been sufficient for Omicron beyond slowing things down somewhat.
I think the regulations were tightened because of the growth of Delta. The decline in cases is just for Delta. Omicron hasn’t taken over yet but because of the risk of it the lockdown is still in place.
I have been tracking Omicron numbers for a while now and even with a daily growth of ~30% (has been relatively stable both globally and in Germany) it can’t have reached a significant fraction of the population even assuming a high unknown percentage.
Berlin’s numbers show about 20% Omicron for last week and about 3% for all of Germany. So at least in Berlin, it’s already there (and numbers should be >50% omicron with new year’s eve.)
In Hamburg, the numbers are also high. The same as London, New York, and all other dense connected traffic hubs. But even in Hamburg Omicron hasn’t taken over yet—though it can’t take much longer.
For reference, in neighboring Switzerland we did not stall with any significant lockdowns, and omicron is starting to take over only this week. Yesterday was the first time a clear uptick was visible in total case counts (delta + omicron), after a period of case counts being almost flat.
I know it’s unlikely, but if it was indeed omicron, its faster generation time also would make its numbers drop faster if they managed to move R under 1
Latest data from the RKI is 17.5% Omicron for the week ending on december 26, up from 3.1% the week before. Regional differences seem to be huge, between 1% in Sachsen and 65% in Bremen.
Overall numbers—still mostly Delta—are still declining and should turn upward again in 1 or 2 weeks.
I’m from Germany and want to respond to this:
I think the regulations were tightened because of the growth of Delta. The decline in cases is just for Delta. Omicron hasn’t taken over yet but because of the risk of it the lockdown is still in place.
I have been tracking Omicron numbers for a while now and even with a daily growth of ~30% (has been relatively stable both globally and in Germany) it can’t have reached a significant fraction of the population even assuming a high unknown percentage.
Yep, that seems like the right explanation. It’s coming, but you’ve stalled it for a bit.
Berlin’s numbers show about 20% Omicron for last week and about 3% for all of Germany. So at least in Berlin, it’s already there (and numbers should be >50% omicron with new year’s eve.)
In Hamburg, the numbers are also high. The same as London, New York, and all other dense connected traffic hubs. But even in Hamburg Omicron hasn’t taken over yet—though it can’t take much longer.
For reference, in neighboring Switzerland we did not stall with any significant lockdowns, and omicron is starting to take over only this week. Yesterday was the first time a clear uptick was visible in total case counts (delta + omicron), after a period of case counts being almost flat.
I know it’s unlikely, but if it was indeed omicron, its faster generation time also would make its numbers drop faster if they managed to move R under 1
Latest data from the RKI is 17.5% Omicron for the week ending on december 26, up from 3.1% the week before. Regional differences seem to be huge, between 1% in Sachsen and 65% in Bremen.
Overall numbers—still mostly Delta—are still declining and should turn upward again in 1 or 2 weeks.