At the very least it would need to be on a logistic scale (i.e. in odds form). If something has 2:1 odds, then if I am at 50% then that’s a 25% probability mass movement, but when I am at 99% only a ~1% probability movement.
But my guess is even odds are too hard to assign to stuff like this.
After chatting with our voices, I believe you misunderstood me as asking “How many points of probability does this argument move you?” whereas I meant “If you had not seen any of the other arguments, and you were presented with this argument, what would your absolute probability of an existential catastrophe from AI be?”
I don’t stand by this as the ultimate bestest survey question of all time, and would welcome an improvement.
I’ll say I think the alternative of “What likelihood ratio does this argument provide?” (e.g. 2x, 10x, etc) isn’t great because I believe the likelihood ratios of all the arguments are not conditionally independent.
I really wish that I could respond more quantitatively to these. IMO all these arguments are cause for concern, but of substantially different scale.
Perhaps something like this?
At the very least it would need to be on a logistic scale (i.e. in odds form). If something has 2:1 odds, then if I am at 50% then that’s a 25% probability mass movement, but when I am at 99% only a ~1% probability movement.
But my guess is even odds are too hard to assign to stuff like this.
After chatting with our voices, I believe you misunderstood me as asking “How many points of probability does this argument move you?” whereas I meant “If you had not seen any of the other arguments, and you were presented with this argument, what would your absolute probability of an existential catastrophe from AI be?”
I don’t stand by this as the ultimate bestest survey question of all time, and would welcome an improvement.
I’ll say I think the alternative of “What likelihood ratio does this argument provide?” (e.g. 2x, 10x, etc) isn’t great because I believe the likelihood ratios of all the arguments are not conditionally independent.
You have my and @katjagrace’s permission to test out other poll formats if you wish.