After chatting with our voices, I believe you misunderstood me as asking “How many points of probability does this argument move you?” whereas I meant “If you had not seen any of the other arguments, and you were presented with this argument, what would your absolute probability of an existential catastrophe from AI be?”
I don’t stand by this as the ultimate bestest survey question of all time, and would welcome an improvement.
I’ll say I think the alternative of “What likelihood ratio does this argument provide?” (e.g. 2x, 10x, etc) isn’t great because I believe the likelihood ratios of all the arguments are not conditionally independent.
After chatting with our voices, I believe you misunderstood me as asking “How many points of probability does this argument move you?” whereas I meant “If you had not seen any of the other arguments, and you were presented with this argument, what would your absolute probability of an existential catastrophe from AI be?”
I don’t stand by this as the ultimate bestest survey question of all time, and would welcome an improvement.
I’ll say I think the alternative of “What likelihood ratio does this argument provide?” (e.g. 2x, 10x, etc) isn’t great because I believe the likelihood ratios of all the arguments are not conditionally independent.