99.9% of all cryptocurrency projects are complete scams (conservative estimate).
On first skim, I agree with the estimate as stated and would post a limit order for either side. I’d also like to note that “crypto in general is terrible” instead of “all crypto is terrible”, as there have been applications developed that do not allow you to lose all funds without explicit acknowledgement.
Similarly, Cyber Security is terrible. Basically every computer on the internet is infected with multiple types of malware.
It is presumably terrible (or, 30%, result of availability bias), and I’ve observed bugs happen because functionality upgrade did not consider its interaction with all other code. However, I disagree that every computer is infected; probably you meant that it is under constant stream of attack attempts?
The insecure domains mainly work because people have charted known paths, and shown that if you follow those paths your loss probability is non-null but small. As a matter of IT, it would be really nice to have systems which don’t logically fail at all, but that requires good education and pressure-resistance skills for software developers.
The insecure domains mainly work because people have charted known paths, and shown that if you follow those paths your loss probability is non-null but small.
I think this is a big part of it, humans have some kind of knack for working in dangerous domains successfully. I feel like an important question is: how far does this generalize? We can estimate the IQ gap between the dumbest person who successfully uses the internet (probably in the 80′s) and the smartest malware author (got to be at least 150+). Is that the limit somehow, or does this knack extend across even more orders of magnitude?
If imagine a world where 100 IQ humans are using an internet that contains malware written by 1000 IQ AGI, do humans just “avoid the bad parts”? What goes wrong exactly, and where?
I feel like an important question is: how far does this generalize? We can estimate the IQ gap between the dumbest person who successfully uses the internet (probably in the 80′s) and the smartest malware author (got to be at least 150+). Is that the limit somehow, or does this knack extend across even more orders of magnitude?
If imagine a world where 100 IQ humans are using an internet that contains malware written by 1000 IQ AGI, do humans just “avoid the bad parts”?
For reactive threats, the upper bound is probably at most “people capable of introspection who can detect they are not sure some action will be to net benefit, and therefore refuse to take it”. For active threatening factors, that’s an arms race (>=40% this race is not to infinity—basically, if more-cooperating DT strategies are any good).
Maybe the subject is researched more in biology? Example topic: eating unknown food (berries, nuts) in forest, and balance of lifetime adaptation vs evolutionary adaptation (which involves generations passing).
For almost everything, yeah, you just avoid the bad parts.
In order to predict the few exceptions, one needs a model of what functions will be available in society. For instance, police implies the need to violently suppress adversaries, and defense implies the need to do so with adversaries that have independent industrial capacity. This is an exception to the general principle of “just avoid the bad stuff” because while your computer can decline to process a TCP packet, your body can’t decline to process a bullet.
If someone is operating e.g. an online shop, then they also face difficulty because they have to physically react to untrusted information and can’t avoid that without winding down the shop. Lots of stuff like that.
On first skim, I agree with the estimate as stated and would post a limit order for either side. I’d also like to note that “crypto in general is terrible” instead of “all crypto is terrible”, as there have been applications developed that do not allow you to lose all funds without explicit acknowledgement.
It is presumably terrible (or, 30%, result of availability bias), and I’ve observed bugs happen because functionality upgrade did not consider its interaction with all other code. However, I disagree that every computer is infected; probably you meant that it is under constant stream of attack attempts?
The insecure domains mainly work because people have charted known paths, and shown that if you follow those paths your loss probability is non-null but small. As a matter of IT, it would be really nice to have systems which don’t logically fail at all, but that requires good education and pressure-resistance skills for software developers.
I think this is a big part of it, humans have some kind of knack for working in dangerous domains successfully. I feel like an important question is: how far does this generalize? We can estimate the IQ gap between the dumbest person who successfully uses the internet (probably in the 80′s) and the smartest malware author (got to be at least 150+). Is that the limit somehow, or does this knack extend across even more orders of magnitude?
If imagine a world where 100 IQ humans are using an internet that contains malware written by 1000 IQ AGI, do humans just “avoid the bad parts”? What goes wrong exactly, and where?
For reactive threats, the upper bound is probably at most “people capable of introspection who can detect they are not sure some action will be to net benefit, and therefore refuse to take it”. For active threatening factors, that’s an arms race (>=40% this race is not to infinity—basically, if more-cooperating DT strategies are any good).
Maybe the subject is researched more in biology? Example topic: eating unknown food (berries, nuts) in forest, and balance of lifetime adaptation vs evolutionary adaptation (which involves generations passing).
For almost everything, yeah, you just avoid the bad parts.
In order to predict the few exceptions, one needs a model of what functions will be available in society. For instance, police implies the need to violently suppress adversaries, and defense implies the need to do so with adversaries that have independent industrial capacity. This is an exception to the general principle of “just avoid the bad stuff” because while your computer can decline to process a TCP packet, your body can’t decline to process a bullet.
If someone is operating e.g. an online shop, then they also face difficulty because they have to physically react to untrusted information and can’t avoid that without winding down the shop. Lots of stuff like that.