Every time I sit down to make a model of takeoff, or read someone else’s model & input my own values for the parameters, it ends up being pretty fast. Much faster than your story. (In fact, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a model that results in a takeoff as slow as your story, even with other people’s values to the parameters.) That’s the main reason why I have faster-takeoff views.
There’s a big gap between “hours to weeks” and “10+ years!” I don’t think intelligence is compute bounded in the relevant sense, but even if it was (see my “Main alternative” in response to Richard elsewhere in this thread) it would maybe get us to a 3 year post-AGI takeoff at most, I’d say.
If you have time to elaborate more on your model—e.g. what you mean by intelligence being compute bounded, and how that translates into numbers for post-AGI takeoff speed—I’d be interested to hear it!
Every time I sit down to make a model of takeoff, or read someone else’s model & input my own values for the parameters, it ends up being pretty fast. Much faster than your story. (In fact, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a model that results in a takeoff as slow as your story, even with other people’s values to the parameters.) That’s the main reason why I have faster-takeoff views.
There’s a big gap between “hours to weeks” and “10+ years!” I don’t think intelligence is compute bounded in the relevant sense, but even if it was (see my “Main alternative” in response to Richard elsewhere in this thread) it would maybe get us to a 3 year post-AGI takeoff at most, I’d say.
If you have time to elaborate more on your model—e.g. what you mean by intelligence being compute bounded, and how that translates into numbers for post-AGI takeoff speed—I’d be interested to hear it!