Can you provide some of your reasons or intuitions for this fast FOOM?
My intuition against it is mostly like “intelligence just seems to be compute bound and thus extremely fast takeoffs (hours to weeks) are unlikely”. But I feel very uncertain about this take and would like to refine it. So just understanding your intuitions better would probably already help a lot.
Every time I sit down to make a model of takeoff, or read someone else’s model & input my own values for the parameters, it ends up being pretty fast. Much faster than your story. (In fact, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a model that results in a takeoff as slow as your story, even with other people’s values to the parameters.) That’s the main reason why I have faster-takeoff views.
There’s a big gap between “hours to weeks” and “10+ years!” I don’t think intelligence is compute bounded in the relevant sense, but even if it was (see my “Main alternative” in response to Richard elsewhere in this thread) it would maybe get us to a 3 year post-AGI takeoff at most, I’d say.
If you have time to elaborate more on your model—e.g. what you mean by intelligence being compute bounded, and how that translates into numbers for post-AGI takeoff speed—I’d be interested to hear it!
Hmmm interesting.
Can you provide some of your reasons or intuitions for this fast FOOM?
My intuition against it is mostly like “intelligence just seems to be compute bound and thus extremely fast takeoffs (hours to weeks) are unlikely”. But I feel very uncertain about this take and would like to refine it. So just understanding your intuitions better would probably already help a lot.
Every time I sit down to make a model of takeoff, or read someone else’s model & input my own values for the parameters, it ends up being pretty fast. Much faster than your story. (In fact, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a model that results in a takeoff as slow as your story, even with other people’s values to the parameters.) That’s the main reason why I have faster-takeoff views.
There’s a big gap between “hours to weeks” and “10+ years!” I don’t think intelligence is compute bounded in the relevant sense, but even if it was (see my “Main alternative” in response to Richard elsewhere in this thread) it would maybe get us to a 3 year post-AGI takeoff at most, I’d say.
If you have time to elaborate more on your model—e.g. what you mean by intelligence being compute bounded, and how that translates into numbers for post-AGI takeoff speed—I’d be interested to hear it!