We could use such examples to estimate logical probability that Goldbach conjecture is false, like share of eventually disproved conjectures to the number of all conjectures (somehow normalised by their complexity and initial plausibility) .
Normalizing such a thing would be fraught with difficult-to-justify assumptions. Conjectures aren’t a random process so most conceivable reference classes would likely suffer from severe biases.
Number theory is a subtle art with a long history of dabblers and crackpots. Personally, I wouldn’t update significantly unless such an estimation were done by someone with a strong mathematical track record and it survived some peer review.
We could use such examples to estimate logical probability that Goldbach conjecture is false, like share of eventually disproved conjectures to the number of all conjectures (somehow normalised by their complexity and initial plausibility) .
Normalizing such a thing would be fraught with difficult-to-justify assumptions. Conjectures aren’t a random process so most conceivable reference classes would likely suffer from severe biases.
Number theory is a subtle art with a long history of dabblers and crackpots. Personally, I wouldn’t update significantly unless such an estimation were done by someone with a strong mathematical track record and it survived some peer review.