Normalizing such a thing would be fraught with difficult-to-justify assumptions. Conjectures aren’t a random process so most conceivable reference classes would likely suffer from severe biases.
Number theory is a subtle art with a long history of dabblers and crackpots. Personally, I wouldn’t update significantly unless such an estimation were done by someone with a strong mathematical track record and it survived some peer review.
Normalizing such a thing would be fraught with difficult-to-justify assumptions. Conjectures aren’t a random process so most conceivable reference classes would likely suffer from severe biases.
Number theory is a subtle art with a long history of dabblers and crackpots. Personally, I wouldn’t update significantly unless such an estimation were done by someone with a strong mathematical track record and it survived some peer review.