Your post is too long for me to want to think through all of it, but I looked at some parts and they don’t seem to make sense to me. For instance for justifying the validity of logical probability, you reference’s MIRI’s paper on logical inductors. However, logical inductors are based on markets of heuristics, and you don’t seem to have used a market of heuristics to derive your probability estimate (and I wouldn’t expect you to since the idea is intractable).
If you make an argument, but you bring up irrelevant things that you aren’t actually relying on in the argument, then that lengthens the argument, which makes it harder to read. Therefore people usually try to avoid bringing up irrelevant things in their arguments.
A consequence of the fact that people usually try to avoid bringing up irrelevant things in their arguments is that one can generally assume that the things people do bring up are going to be relevant. So this makes it extra confusing when you bring up something irrelevant, because we end up assuming that you intend it to be important in your argument, and try to figure out in what way it is relevant.
I would recommend redoing this argument where you cut out all the things that are not relevant or which you do not use in your argument.
logical inductors are actually defined by the logical induction criterion. The market bit is there to prove that it is possible to fulfill the criterion.
Your post is too long for me to want to think through all of it, but I looked at some parts and they don’t seem to make sense to me. For instance for justifying the validity of logical probability, you reference’s MIRI’s paper on logical inductors. However, logical inductors are based on markets of heuristics, and you don’t seem to have used a market of heuristics to derive your probability estimate (and I wouldn’t expect you to since the idea is intractable).
If you make an argument, but you bring up irrelevant things that you aren’t actually relying on in the argument, then that lengthens the argument, which makes it harder to read. Therefore people usually try to avoid bringing up irrelevant things in their arguments.
A consequence of the fact that people usually try to avoid bringing up irrelevant things in their arguments is that one can generally assume that the things people do bring up are going to be relevant. So this makes it extra confusing when you bring up something irrelevant, because we end up assuming that you intend it to be important in your argument, and try to figure out in what way it is relevant.
I would recommend redoing this argument where you cut out all the things that are not relevant or which you do not use in your argument.
I linked the MIRI paper because it has good introduction in logical probability.
logical inductors are actually defined by the logical induction criterion. The market bit is there to prove that it is possible to fulfill the criterion.