Something roughly along those lines sounds right. You might consider e.g. a ranking of importance, or asking some narrower questions about each agenda—how promising will they seem, how tractable will they seem, how useful will they have been in hindsight for subsequent work produced in the intervening 4-year period, how much will their frames spread, etc—depending on what questions you think are most relevant to how you should allocate attention now. You might also consider importance of subproblems, in addition to (or instead of) agendas. Or if there’s things which seem like they might be valuable to look into but would cost significant effort, and you’re not sure whether it’s worthwhile, those are great things for a market on your future judgement.
In general, “ask lots of questions” is a good heuristic here, analogous to “measure lots of stuff”.
I considered that, but unless I’m misunderstanding something about Manifold markets, they have to be either yes/no or open-ended.
or asking some narrower questions about each agenda—how promising will they seem, how tractable will they seem, how useful will they have been in hindsight for subsequent work produced in the intervening 4-year period, how much will their frames spread, etc—depending on what questions you think are most relevant to how you should allocate attention now [...]
In general, “ask lots of questions” is a good heuristic here, analogous to “measure lots of stuff”.
I agree with measuring lots of stuff in principle, but Manifold Markets only allows me to open 5 free markets.
Something roughly along those lines sounds right. You might consider e.g. a ranking of importance, or asking some narrower questions about each agenda—how promising will they seem, how tractable will they seem, how useful will they have been in hindsight for subsequent work produced in the intervening 4-year period, how much will their frames spread, etc—depending on what questions you think are most relevant to how you should allocate attention now. You might also consider importance of subproblems, in addition to (or instead of) agendas. Or if there’s things which seem like they might be valuable to look into but would cost significant effort, and you’re not sure whether it’s worthwhile, those are great things for a market on your future judgement.
In general, “ask lots of questions” is a good heuristic here, analogous to “measure lots of stuff”.
Markets up: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3KeT4uGygBw6YGJyP/ai-research-program-prediction-markets
I considered that, but unless I’m misunderstanding something about Manifold markets, they have to be either yes/no or open-ended.
I agree with measuring lots of stuff in principle, but Manifold Markets only allows me to open 5 free markets.