I considered that, but unless I’m misunderstanding something about Manifold markets, they have to be either yes/no or open-ended.
or asking some narrower questions about each agenda—how promising will they seem, how tractable will they seem, how useful will they have been in hindsight for subsequent work produced in the intervening 4-year period, how much will their frames spread, etc—depending on what questions you think are most relevant to how you should allocate attention now [...]
In general, “ask lots of questions” is a good heuristic here, analogous to “measure lots of stuff”.
I agree with measuring lots of stuff in principle, but Manifold Markets only allows me to open 5 free markets.
I considered that, but unless I’m misunderstanding something about Manifold markets, they have to be either yes/no or open-ended.
I agree with measuring lots of stuff in principle, but Manifold Markets only allows me to open 5 free markets.