For example, you might be much smarter than me and a meteorologist, but you’d find it hard to predict the weather in a year’s time better than me if it’s a single-shot-contest.
Sure, but I’d presumably be quite a lot better at predicting the weather in two days time.
What point are you trying to make? I’m not sure how that relates to what I was trying to illustrate with the weather example. Assuming for the moment that you didn’t understand my point.
The “game” I was referring to was one where it’s literally all-or-nothing “predict the weather a year from now”, you get no extra points for tomorrow’s weather. This might be artificial but I chose it because it’s a common example of the interesting fact that chaos can be easier to control than simulate.
Another example. You’re trying to win an election and “plan long-term to make the best use of your intelligence advantage”, you need to plan and predict a year ahead. Intelligence doesn’t give you a big advantage in predicting tomorrow’s polls given today’s polls. I can do that reasonably well, too. In this contest, resources and information might matter a lot more than intelligence. Of course, you can use intelligence to obtain information and resources. But this bootstrapping takes time and it’s hard to tell how much depending where you start off.
Sure, but I’d presumably be quite a lot better at predicting the weather in two days time.
What point are you trying to make? I’m not sure how that relates to what I was trying to illustrate with the weather example. Assuming for the moment that you didn’t understand my point.
The “game” I was referring to was one where it’s literally all-or-nothing “predict the weather a year from now”, you get no extra points for tomorrow’s weather. This might be artificial but I chose it because it’s a common example of the interesting fact that chaos can be easier to control than simulate.
Another example. You’re trying to win an election and “plan long-term to make the best use of your intelligence advantage”, you need to plan and predict a year ahead. Intelligence doesn’t give you a big advantage in predicting tomorrow’s polls given today’s polls. I can do that reasonably well, too. In this contest, resources and information might matter a lot more than intelligence. Of course, you can use intelligence to obtain information and resources. But this bootstrapping takes time and it’s hard to tell how much depending where you start off.