I am very skeptical of this on priors, for the record. I think this statement could be true for superblitz time controls and whatnot, but I would be shocked if knight odds would be enough to beat Magnus in a 10+0 or 15+0 game. That being said, I have no inside knowledge, and I would update a lot of my beliefs significantly if your statement as currently written actually ends up being true.
Hissha from the Lc0 server reports 19 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses against Lenderman (currently ~2500 FIDE) at 15+10 from a knight odds match 2 months ago—with the caveat that Lenderman started playing too fast after 10 games. I haven’t run the numbers but suspect this would be enough to go even against a 2750, if not Magnus?
I was surprised too. I think it’s an exciting development :)
Hmm, that sounds about right based on the usual human-vs-human transfer from Elo difference to performance… but I am still not sure if that holds up when you have odds games, which feel qualitatively different to me than regular games. Based on my current chess intuition, I would expect the ability to win odds games to scale better than ELO near the top level, but I could be wrong about this.
I am very skeptical of this on priors, for the record. I think this statement could be true for superblitz time controls and whatnot, but I would be shocked if knight odds would be enough to beat Magnus in a 10+0 or 15+0 game. That being said, I have no inside knowledge, and I would update a lot of my beliefs significantly if your statement as currently written actually ends up being true.
Hissha from the Lc0 server reports 19 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses against Lenderman (currently ~2500 FIDE) at 15+10 from a knight odds match 2 months ago—with the caveat that Lenderman started playing too fast after 10 games. I haven’t run the numbers but suspect this would be enough to go even against a 2750, if not Magnus?
I was surprised too. I think it’s an exciting development :)
Hmm, that sounds about right based on the usual human-vs-human transfer from Elo difference to performance… but I am still not sure if that holds up when you have odds games, which feel qualitatively different to me than regular games. Based on my current chess intuition, I would expect the ability to win odds games to scale better than ELO near the top level, but I could be wrong about this.