New data: “If we assume the age distribution of severity is the same in Korea vs. China, but that the Korean rate of severe illness is the correct one, this gives us 3/19*10 = 1.6% probability of a person under 40 having a severe case, given that they have been infected.” (COVID-19 Risks For Young People)
Note that severe =/= critical (I think that post confuses severe with critical in the conclusions)
In the three Chinese studies which are quoted, severe includes e.g. cases of shortness of breath and high fever which, whilst possibly hopsitalisable under normal circumstances, not obviously fatal if hospitals are full. Severe doesn’t imply “requiring mechanical ventilation or other intensive care.”
A better estimate for ICU cases based on that evidence would be ~0.4% as (severe + critical) / severe = 4 in the 44k person China data.
Of course some severe but not critical cases might become critical if not treated, so death rate without any treatment would be between the two.
New data: “If we assume the age distribution of severity is the same in Korea vs. China, but that the Korean rate of severe illness is the correct one, this gives us 3/19*10 = 1.6% probability of a person under 40 having a severe case, given that they have been infected.” (COVID-19 Risks For Young People)
Note that severe =/= critical (I think that post confuses severe with critical in the conclusions)
In the three Chinese studies which are quoted, severe includes e.g. cases of shortness of breath and high fever which, whilst possibly hopsitalisable under normal circumstances, not obviously fatal if hospitals are full. Severe doesn’t imply “requiring mechanical ventilation or other intensive care.”
A better estimate for ICU cases based on that evidence would be ~0.4% as (severe + critical) / severe = 4 in the 44k person China data.
Of course some severe but not critical cases might become critical if not treated, so death rate without any treatment would be between the two.