Note that severe =/= critical (I think that post confuses severe with critical in the conclusions)
In the three Chinese studies which are quoted, severe includes e.g. cases of shortness of breath and high fever which, whilst possibly hopsitalisable under normal circumstances, not obviously fatal if hospitals are full. Severe doesn’t imply “requiring mechanical ventilation or other intensive care.”
A better estimate for ICU cases based on that evidence would be ~0.4% as (severe + critical) / severe = 4 in the 44k person China data.
Of course some severe but not critical cases might become critical if not treated, so death rate without any treatment would be between the two.
Note that severe =/= critical (I think that post confuses severe with critical in the conclusions)
In the three Chinese studies which are quoted, severe includes e.g. cases of shortness of breath and high fever which, whilst possibly hopsitalisable under normal circumstances, not obviously fatal if hospitals are full. Severe doesn’t imply “requiring mechanical ventilation or other intensive care.”
A better estimate for ICU cases based on that evidence would be ~0.4% as (severe + critical) / severe = 4 in the 44k person China data.
Of course some severe but not critical cases might become critical if not treated, so death rate without any treatment would be between the two.