This being actual aliens is highly unlikely for the usual reasons. The best modeling suggests aliens are at least hundreds of millions of light-years away, since otherwise there would be sufficiently many of them in the sky that some of them would choose not to hide. Moreover if any did visit Earth with the intention of hiding, they would probably have more advanced technology than this, and would be better at hiding.
I do like Hanson’s story you link. :) Yes, panspermia possibility does make it non-crazy that there could be aliens close to us despite an empty sky. Unlikely, but non-crazy. Then there’s still the question of why they are so bad at hiding & why their technology is so shitty, and why they are hiding in the first place. It’s not completely impossible but it seems like a lot of implausible assumptions stacked on top of each other. So, I think it’s still true that “the best modelling suggests aliens are at least hundreds of millions of light-years away.”
This being actual aliens is highly unlikely for the usual reasons. The best modeling suggests aliens are at least hundreds of millions of light-years away, since otherwise there would be sufficiently many of them in the sky that some of them would choose not to hide. Moreover if any did visit Earth with the intention of hiding, they would probably have more advanced technology than this, and would be better at hiding.
As Robin Hanson himself notes: “That’s assuming independent origins. Things that have a common origin would find themselves closer in space and time.” See also: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/ufos-what-the-hellhtml
I do like Hanson’s story you link. :) Yes, panspermia possibility does make it non-crazy that there could be aliens close to us despite an empty sky. Unlikely, but non-crazy. Then there’s still the question of why they are so bad at hiding & why their technology is so shitty, and why they are hiding in the first place. It’s not completely impossible but it seems like a lot of implausible assumptions stacked on top of each other. So, I think it’s still true that “the best modelling suggests aliens are at least hundreds of millions of light-years away.”
We are more likely to be born in a world with panspermia as it has higher concentration of habitable planets.
Good point. I’ll message Tristan, see if he can incorporate that into the model.
Had a post about that.