Suppose that a researcher’s conception of current missing pieces is a mental object M, their timeline estimate is a probability function P, and their forecasting expertise F is a function that maps M to P. In this model, F can be pretty crazy, creating vast differences in P depending how you ask, while M is still solid.
Good point. This would be reasonable if you think someone can be super bad at F and still great at M.
Still, I think estimating “how big is this gap?” and “how long will it take to cross it?” might quite related, so I expect the skills to be correlated or even strongly correlated.
I think their relationship depends on whether crossing the gap requires grind or insight. If it’s mostly about grind then a good expert will be able to estimate it, but insight tends to unpredictable by nature.
Another way of looking at my comment above would be that timelines of less than 5 years would imply the remaining steps mostly requiring grind, and timelines of 20+ years would imply that some amount of insight is needed.
Good point. This would be reasonable if you think someone can be super bad at F and still great at M.
Still, I think estimating “how big is this gap?” and “how long will it take to cross it?” might quite related, so I expect the skills to be correlated or even strongly correlated.
I think their relationship depends on whether crossing the gap requires grind or insight. If it’s mostly about grind then a good expert will be able to estimate it, but insight tends to unpredictable by nature.
Another way of looking at my comment above would be that timelines of less than 5 years would imply the remaining steps mostly requiring grind, and timelines of 20+ years would imply that some amount of insight is needed.