I think their relationship depends on whether crossing the gap requires grind or insight. If it’s mostly about grind then a good expert will be able to estimate it, but insight tends to unpredictable by nature.
Another way of looking at my comment above would be that timelines of less than 5 years would imply the remaining steps mostly requiring grind, and timelines of 20+ years would imply that some amount of insight is needed.
I think their relationship depends on whether crossing the gap requires grind or insight. If it’s mostly about grind then a good expert will be able to estimate it, but insight tends to unpredictable by nature.
Another way of looking at my comment above would be that timelines of less than 5 years would imply the remaining steps mostly requiring grind, and timelines of 20+ years would imply that some amount of insight is needed.