We all have a mental image of pre-COVID normal.
I often hear people saying “I cannot wait to get back to normal.” or asking “When will we get back to normal?” I think that is an expectation that is sure to be disappointed. I suspect that is the case for most who read this site.
I’m curious about the mental image of the near future normal that is held here. I’ll list a few areas for thoughts but also don’t think anyone should be limited in any thoughts they want to share.
1) International Travel—can be general, tourism related or business related
2) Entertainment—theater/movies, live sports and concerts. One thought here might be a move to more open air venues rather than indoors.
3) Social interactions in general. Does some of the zenophobia that has occurred persist or die away (say due to vaccines).
4) Will vaccines change things that much?
I think buying things online is becoming more widespread and will be much more common than before covid. This should have some effect on how commerce is organized, with the less online-savvy businesses losing some ground. Maybe we shall get used to paying more for the delivery than we did before, but it will work both ways; I can imagine publishers having to cut prices and whole branches of the book printing industry drying out.
Then there’s a question of professional unions, for example teachers’ unions. I have no idea what they will do, but they will be desperate. Might result in new legislature.
(I don’t know how well it corresponds to what is happening in the States, though, or even in Europe.)
4) Yes. So much depends on timing, availability, and effectiveness of vaccines.
1-3) All of the others have some amount of pent-up demand, and some long-term lingering fear/habit effects. And how those interact will mostly depend on 4. I suspect very-long-term effects (10+ years) will mostly be some trends that accelerated during the virus-fear times, rather than actual directional changes from the virus.
I think that a minority of people will decrease their in-person interactions, even after covid is no longer a big problem, for years, decades, or the rest of their lives. Although this group will be a minority (similar to the number of people who are currently still maintaining strict quarantine), they will be influential because they are highly educated and because shut-ins have more time to express opinions online. I expect this to have a negative impact on society in several ways: fewer high-quality social interactions, more mental illness, fewer real-world sexual and romantic relationships, decreased level of courtesy, higher obesity rates, less connection to local communities and less awareness of facts in the real world.