I privately recorded my own predictions on these questions. I felt uncomfortable posting these publicly at the time. I can’t fix that, but I can post my answers now and do better next time.
Score: 3.34
Edit: Per @bucky, I’m pretty sure the scoring rule I used (ln(p) - ln(.5)) is wrong, but I’m not sure what would be the correct rule.
Grading myself on SSC’s 2020 predictions
Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions
I privately recorded my own predictions on these questions. I felt uncomfortable posting these publicly at the time. I can’t fix that, but I can post my answers now and do better next time.
Score: 3.34
Edit: Per @bucky, I’m pretty sure the scoring rule I used (ln(p) - ln(.5)) is wrong, but I’m not sure what would be the correct rule.