Bayesian reasoning means that April Fool’s is by far the worst day of the year to do something that you wish to be taken as not purely a joke, especially something that is also a little out there / funny.
I think having a schelling day for trying weird stuff is good, and April Fool’s day seems fine. I don’r have nearly as strong a feeling as you seem to that April Fool’s jokes are never partially serious.
When you say that “Bayesian reasoning means that April Fool’s is by far the worst day of the year [for an experiment like this]”, what do you mean? I expect you mean something relating to reasoning about intentions during April Fool’s (and that this lack of clarity amongst commenters is a negative), but the specifics are unclear to me. Your more expansive post above details some of the problems you have with this experiment, but doesn’t relate back to Bayes in any way I can identify.
I’d argue the exact opposite.
Bayesian reasoning means that April Fool’s is by far the worst day of the year to do something that you wish to be taken as not purely a joke, especially something that is also a little out there / funny.
I think having a schelling day for trying weird stuff is good, and April Fool’s day seems fine. I don’r have nearly as strong a feeling as you seem to that April Fool’s jokes are never partially serious.
When you say that “Bayesian reasoning means that April Fool’s is by far the worst day of the year [for an experiment like this]”, what do you mean? I expect you mean something relating to reasoning about intentions during April Fool’s (and that this lack of clarity amongst commenters is a negative), but the specifics are unclear to me. Your more expansive post above details some of the problems you have with this experiment, but doesn’t relate back to Bayes in any way I can identify.
The probability that it’s just a joke is higher on April Fool’s.
P(fake|AprilFools)/P(real|AprilFools) is pretty large (note that “fake” means “not(real)”, which makes this a Bayes Ratio.