Your probability of updating downwards should be (more or less; not exactly) equal to one minus your original probability, i.e. if your original probability is .25, your probability of updating downwards should be around .75. This is obvious, since if there is a one in four chance that the thing is so, there is a three out of four chance that you will find out that it is not so, when you find out whether it is so or not.
Conservation of expected evidence doesn’t mean that the chance of updating upwards is equal to the chance of updating downwards. It also takes into account the quantity of the change; i.e. my probability is .25, and I update upwards, I will have to update three times as much as if I had updated downwards.
What if you know jar A is 80% red and jar B is 0% red, and you know you’re looking at one of them, and your confidence that it’s A is 0.625? Then you have probability 0.5 that a bead chosen from the jar in front of you is red, but will update upwards with probability 0.625 if you’re given the information of which jar you’re looking at.
My comment assigns to a probability to updating upwards or downwards in a generic way when new information is given; your comment calculates based on “if you’re given the information of which jar you’re looking at”, which is more concrete. You could also be given other information which would make it more likely you’re looking at B.
And it’s always .5, I hope.
Your probability of updating downwards should be (more or less; not exactly) equal to one minus your original probability, i.e. if your original probability is .25, your probability of updating downwards should be around .75. This is obvious, since if there is a one in four chance that the thing is so, there is a three out of four chance that you will find out that it is not so, when you find out whether it is so or not.
Conservation of expected evidence doesn’t mean that the chance of updating upwards is equal to the chance of updating downwards. It also takes into account the quantity of the change; i.e. my probability is .25, and I update upwards, I will have to update three times as much as if I had updated downwards.
You’re right. Thanks.
What if you know jar A is 80% red and jar B is 0% red, and you know you’re looking at one of them, and your confidence that it’s A is 0.625? Then you have probability 0.5 that a bead chosen from the jar in front of you is red, but will update upwards with probability 0.625 if you’re given the information of which jar you’re looking at.
My comment assigns to a probability to updating upwards or downwards in a generic way when new information is given; your comment calculates based on “if you’re given the information of which jar you’re looking at”, which is more concrete. You could also be given other information which would make it more likely you’re looking at B.
No, it’s not. (You either win the lottery, or you don’t.)