I would have thought it obvious that I was talking about lawyers who have been developing law for at least a millenium, not merely currently living lawyers in one particular country. Oh well.
Since my posts seem to be being read so carelessly, I will no longer be posting on this thread.
A careful reading of my own comment would have revealed my references to the US as only one heavily lawyered society (useful for an upper bound on lawyer density, and representing a large portion of the developed world and legal population), and to the low population of past centuries (which make them of lesser importance for a population estimate), indicating that I was talking about the total over time and space (above some threshold of intelligence) as well.
I was presenting figures as the start of an estimate of long term lawyer population, and to indicate that to get “millions” one could not pick a high percentile within the population of lawyers, problematic given the intelligence of even 90th percentile attorneys.
Is it really so hard to believe that there have been more than a million highly intelligent judges and influential lawyers since the Magna Carta was issued? (In my mind, the reference is to English Common Law—Civil Law works differently enough that counting participants is much harder).
As I said, I don’t think this proves what nickLW asserts follows from it, but I think the statement “More than a million fairly intelligent individuals have put in substantial amounts of work to make the legal system capable of solving social problems decently well” is true, if mostly irrelevant to AI.
The number of solicitors qualified to work in England and Wales has rocketed over the past 30 years, according to new figures from the Law Society. The number holding certificates—which excludes retired lawyers and those no longer following a legal career—are at nearly 118,000, up 36% on ten years ago.
There were 2,500 barristers and 32,000 solicitors in England and Wales in the early 1970s. Now there are 15,000 barristers and 115,000 solicitors.
And further in the past the overall population was much smaller, as well as poorer and with fewer lawyers (who were less educated, and more impaired by lead, micronutrient deficiencies, etc):
1315 – Between 4 and 6 million.[3]
1350 – 3 million or less.[4]
1541 – 2,774,000 [note 1][5]
1601 – 4,110,000 [5]
1651 – 5,228,000 [5]
1701 – 5,058,000 [5]
1751 – 5,772,000 [5]
1801 – 8,308,000 at the time of the first census. Census officials estimated at the time that there had been an increase of 77% in the preceding 100 years. In each county women were in the majority.[6] Wrigley and Schofield estimate 8,664,000 based on birth and death records.[5]
1811 – 9,496,000
“More than a million fairly intelligent individuals have put in substantial amounts of work
If we count litigating for particular clients on humdrum matters (the great majority of cases) in all legal systems everywhere, I would agree with this.
“have put in substantial amounts of work to make the legal system capable of solving social problems decently well”
It seems almost all the work is not directed at that task, or duplicative, or specialized to particular situations in ways that obsolesce. I didn’t apply much of this filter in the initial comment, but it seems pretty intense too.
Ok, you’ve convinced me that millions is an overestimate.
Summing the top 60% of judges, top 10% of practicing lawyers, and the top 10% of legal thinkers who were not practicing lawyers—since 1215, that’s more than 100,00 people. What other intellectual enterprise has that commitment for that period of time? The military has more people total, but far fewer deep thinkers. Religious institutions, maybe? I’d need to think harder about how to appropriately play reference class tennis—the whole Catholic Church is not a fair comparison because it covers more people than the common law.
Stepping back for a moment, I still think your particular criticism of nickLW’s point is misplaced. Assuming that he’s referencing the intellectual heft and success of the common law tradition, he’s right that there’s a fair amount of heft there, regardless of his overestimate of the raw numbers.
The existence of that heft doesn’t prove what he suggests, but your argument seems to be assaulting the strongest part of his argument by asserting that there has not be a relatively enormous intellectual investment in developing the common law tradition. There has been a very large investment, and the investment has created a powerful institution.
I agree that the common law is a pretty effective legal system, reflecting the work of smart people adjudicating particular cases, and feedback over time (from competition between courts, reversals, reactions to and enforcement difficulties with judgments, and so forth). I would recommend it over civil law for a charter city importing a legal system.
But that’s no reason to exaggerate the underlying mechanisms and virtues. I also think that there is an active tendency in some circles to overhype those virtues, as they are tied to ideological disputes. [Edited to remove political label.]
but your argument seems to be assaulting the strongest part of his argument
Perhaps a strong individual claim, but I didn’t see it clearly connected to a conclusion.
Perhaps a strong individual claim, but I didn’t see it clearly connected to a conclusion.
I agree with you that it isn’t connected at all with his conclusions. Therefore, challenging it doesn’t challenge his conclusion. Nitpicking something that you think is irrelevant to the opposing side’s conclusion in a debate is logically rude.
And why one should pick a high percentile, exactly, if the priors for high percentiles are proportionally low and strong evidence is absent? What’s wrong with assuming ‘somewhat above median’, i.e. close to 50th percentile? Why is that even really harsh?
Extreme standardized testing (after adjusting for regression to the mean), successful writer (by hits, readers, reviews; even vocabulary, which is fairly strongly associated with intelligence in large statistical samples), impressing top philosophers with his decision theory work, impressing very smart and influential people (e.g. Peter Thiel) in real-time conversation.
Why is that even really harsh?
It would be harsh to a graduate student from a top hard science program or law school. The median attorney figure in the US today, let alone over the world and history, is just not that high.
impressing top philosophers with his decision theory work,
The TDT paper from 2012 reads like popularization of something, not like normal science paper on some formalized theory. I don’t think impressing ‘top philosophers’ is impressive.
It would be harsh to a graduate student from a top hard science program or law school.
Or to a writer that gets royalties larger than typical lawyer. Or a smart and influential person, e.g. Peter Thiel.
But a blogger that successfully talked small-ish percentage of people he could reach, into giving him money for work on AI? That’s hardly the evidence to sway 0.0001 prior. I do concede though that median lawyer might be unable to do that (but I dunno—only small percentage would be self deluded or bad enough to try). The world is full of pseudoscientists, cranks, and hustlers that manage this, and more, and who do not seem to be particularly bright.
A careful reading of my own comment would have revealed my references to the US as only one heavily lawyered society (useful for an upper bound on lawyer density, and representing a large portion of the developed world and legal population), and to the low population of past centuries (which make them of lesser importance for a population estimate), indicating that I was talking about the total over time and space (above some threshold of intelligence) as well.
I was presenting figures as the start of an estimate of long term lawyer population, and to indicate that to get “millions” one could not pick a high percentile within the population of lawyers, problematic given the intelligence of even 90th percentile attorneys.
Is it really so hard to believe that there have been more than a million highly intelligent judges and influential lawyers since the Magna Carta was issued? (In my mind, the reference is to English Common Law—Civil Law works differently enough that counting participants is much harder).
As I said, I don’t think this proves what nickLW asserts follows from it, but I think the statement “More than a million fairly intelligent individuals have put in substantial amounts of work to make the legal system capable of solving social problems decently well” is true, if mostly irrelevant to AI.
Limiting to the common law tradition makes it even more dubious. Today, the population of England and Wales is around 60 million. Wikipedia says:
On the number of solicitors (barristers are much less numerous):
Or this:
And further in the past the overall population was much smaller, as well as poorer and with fewer lawyers (who were less educated, and more impaired by lead, micronutrient deficiencies, etc):
1315 – Between 4 and 6 million.[3] 1350 – 3 million or less.[4] 1541 – 2,774,000 [note 1][5] 1601 – 4,110,000 [5] 1651 – 5,228,000 [5] 1701 – 5,058,000 [5] 1751 – 5,772,000 [5] 1801 – 8,308,000 at the time of the first census. Census officials estimated at the time that there had been an increase of 77% in the preceding 100 years. In each county women were in the majority.[6] Wrigley and Schofield estimate 8,664,000 based on birth and death records.[5] 1811 – 9,496,000
If we count litigating for particular clients on humdrum matters (the great majority of cases) in all legal systems everywhere, I would agree with this.
It seems almost all the work is not directed at that task, or duplicative, or specialized to particular situations in ways that obsolesce. I didn’t apply much of this filter in the initial comment, but it seems pretty intense too.
Ok, you’ve convinced me that millions is an overestimate.
Summing the top 60% of judges, top 10% of practicing lawyers, and the top 10% of legal thinkers who were not practicing lawyers—since 1215, that’s more than 100,00 people. What other intellectual enterprise has that commitment for that period of time? The military has more people total, but far fewer deep thinkers. Religious institutions, maybe? I’d need to think harder about how to appropriately play reference class tennis—the whole Catholic Church is not a fair comparison because it covers more people than the common law.
Stepping back for a moment, I still think your particular criticism of nickLW’s point is misplaced. Assuming that he’s referencing the intellectual heft and success of the common law tradition, he’s right that there’s a fair amount of heft there, regardless of his overestimate of the raw numbers.
The existence of that heft doesn’t prove what he suggests, but your argument seems to be assaulting the strongest part of his argument by asserting that there has not be a relatively enormous intellectual investment in developing the common law tradition. There has been a very large investment, and the investment has created a powerful institution.
I agree that the common law is a pretty effective legal system, reflecting the work of smart people adjudicating particular cases, and feedback over time (from competition between courts, reversals, reactions to and enforcement difficulties with judgments, and so forth). I would recommend it over civil law for a charter city importing a legal system.
But that’s no reason to exaggerate the underlying mechanisms and virtues. I also think that there is an active tendency in some circles to overhype those virtues, as they are tied to ideological disputes. [Edited to remove political label.]
Perhaps a strong individual claim, but I didn’t see it clearly connected to a conclusion.
I agree with you that it isn’t connected at all with his conclusions. Therefore, challenging it doesn’t challenge his conclusion. Nitpicking something that you think is irrelevant to the opposing side’s conclusion in a debate is logically rude.
And why one should pick a high percentile, exactly, if the priors for high percentiles are proportionally low and strong evidence is absent? What’s wrong with assuming ‘somewhat above median’, i.e. close to 50th percentile? Why is that even really harsh?
Extreme standardized testing (after adjusting for regression to the mean), successful writer (by hits, readers, reviews; even vocabulary, which is fairly strongly associated with intelligence in large statistical samples), impressing top philosophers with his decision theory work, impressing very smart and influential people (e.g. Peter Thiel) in real-time conversation.
It would be harsh to a graduate student from a top hard science program or law school. The median attorney figure in the US today, let alone over the world and history, is just not that high.
The TDT paper from 2012 reads like popularization of something, not like normal science paper on some formalized theory. I don’t think impressing ‘top philosophers’ is impressive.
Or to a writer that gets royalties larger than typical lawyer. Or a smart and influential person, e.g. Peter Thiel.
But a blogger that successfully talked small-ish percentage of people he could reach, into giving him money for work on AI? That’s hardly the evidence to sway 0.0001 prior. I do concede though that median lawyer might be unable to do that (but I dunno—only small percentage would be self deluded or bad enough to try). The world is full of pseudoscientists, cranks, and hustlers that manage this, and more, and who do not seem to be particularly bright.