Is it really so hard to believe that there have been more than a million highly intelligent judges and influential lawyers since the Magna Carta was issued? (In my mind, the reference is to English Common Law—Civil Law works differently enough that counting participants is much harder).
As I said, I don’t think this proves what nickLW asserts follows from it, but I think the statement “More than a million fairly intelligent individuals have put in substantial amounts of work to make the legal system capable of solving social problems decently well” is true, if mostly irrelevant to AI.
The number of solicitors qualified to work in England and Wales has rocketed over the past 30 years, according to new figures from the Law Society. The number holding certificates—which excludes retired lawyers and those no longer following a legal career—are at nearly 118,000, up 36% on ten years ago.
There were 2,500 barristers and 32,000 solicitors in England and Wales in the early 1970s. Now there are 15,000 barristers and 115,000 solicitors.
And further in the past the overall population was much smaller, as well as poorer and with fewer lawyers (who were less educated, and more impaired by lead, micronutrient deficiencies, etc):
1315 – Between 4 and 6 million.[3]
1350 – 3 million or less.[4]
1541 – 2,774,000 [note 1][5]
1601 – 4,110,000 [5]
1651 – 5,228,000 [5]
1701 – 5,058,000 [5]
1751 – 5,772,000 [5]
1801 – 8,308,000 at the time of the first census. Census officials estimated at the time that there had been an increase of 77% in the preceding 100 years. In each county women were in the majority.[6] Wrigley and Schofield estimate 8,664,000 based on birth and death records.[5]
1811 – 9,496,000
“More than a million fairly intelligent individuals have put in substantial amounts of work
If we count litigating for particular clients on humdrum matters (the great majority of cases) in all legal systems everywhere, I would agree with this.
“have put in substantial amounts of work to make the legal system capable of solving social problems decently well”
It seems almost all the work is not directed at that task, or duplicative, or specialized to particular situations in ways that obsolesce. I didn’t apply much of this filter in the initial comment, but it seems pretty intense too.
Ok, you’ve convinced me that millions is an overestimate.
Summing the top 60% of judges, top 10% of practicing lawyers, and the top 10% of legal thinkers who were not practicing lawyers—since 1215, that’s more than 100,00 people. What other intellectual enterprise has that commitment for that period of time? The military has more people total, but far fewer deep thinkers. Religious institutions, maybe? I’d need to think harder about how to appropriately play reference class tennis—the whole Catholic Church is not a fair comparison because it covers more people than the common law.
Stepping back for a moment, I still think your particular criticism of nickLW’s point is misplaced. Assuming that he’s referencing the intellectual heft and success of the common law tradition, he’s right that there’s a fair amount of heft there, regardless of his overestimate of the raw numbers.
The existence of that heft doesn’t prove what he suggests, but your argument seems to be assaulting the strongest part of his argument by asserting that there has not be a relatively enormous intellectual investment in developing the common law tradition. There has been a very large investment, and the investment has created a powerful institution.
I agree that the common law is a pretty effective legal system, reflecting the work of smart people adjudicating particular cases, and feedback over time (from competition between courts, reversals, reactions to and enforcement difficulties with judgments, and so forth). I would recommend it over civil law for a charter city importing a legal system.
But that’s no reason to exaggerate the underlying mechanisms and virtues. I also think that there is an active tendency in some circles to overhype those virtues, as they are tied to ideological disputes. [Edited to remove political label.]
but your argument seems to be assaulting the strongest part of his argument
Perhaps a strong individual claim, but I didn’t see it clearly connected to a conclusion.
Perhaps a strong individual claim, but I didn’t see it clearly connected to a conclusion.
I agree with you that it isn’t connected at all with his conclusions. Therefore, challenging it doesn’t challenge his conclusion. Nitpicking something that you think is irrelevant to the opposing side’s conclusion in a debate is logically rude.
Is it really so hard to believe that there have been more than a million highly intelligent judges and influential lawyers since the Magna Carta was issued? (In my mind, the reference is to English Common Law—Civil Law works differently enough that counting participants is much harder).
As I said, I don’t think this proves what nickLW asserts follows from it, but I think the statement “More than a million fairly intelligent individuals have put in substantial amounts of work to make the legal system capable of solving social problems decently well” is true, if mostly irrelevant to AI.
Limiting to the common law tradition makes it even more dubious. Today, the population of England and Wales is around 60 million. Wikipedia says:
On the number of solicitors (barristers are much less numerous):
Or this:
And further in the past the overall population was much smaller, as well as poorer and with fewer lawyers (who were less educated, and more impaired by lead, micronutrient deficiencies, etc):
1315 – Between 4 and 6 million.[3] 1350 – 3 million or less.[4] 1541 – 2,774,000 [note 1][5] 1601 – 4,110,000 [5] 1651 – 5,228,000 [5] 1701 – 5,058,000 [5] 1751 – 5,772,000 [5] 1801 – 8,308,000 at the time of the first census. Census officials estimated at the time that there had been an increase of 77% in the preceding 100 years. In each county women were in the majority.[6] Wrigley and Schofield estimate 8,664,000 based on birth and death records.[5] 1811 – 9,496,000
If we count litigating for particular clients on humdrum matters (the great majority of cases) in all legal systems everywhere, I would agree with this.
It seems almost all the work is not directed at that task, or duplicative, or specialized to particular situations in ways that obsolesce. I didn’t apply much of this filter in the initial comment, but it seems pretty intense too.
Ok, you’ve convinced me that millions is an overestimate.
Summing the top 60% of judges, top 10% of practicing lawyers, and the top 10% of legal thinkers who were not practicing lawyers—since 1215, that’s more than 100,00 people. What other intellectual enterprise has that commitment for that period of time? The military has more people total, but far fewer deep thinkers. Religious institutions, maybe? I’d need to think harder about how to appropriately play reference class tennis—the whole Catholic Church is not a fair comparison because it covers more people than the common law.
Stepping back for a moment, I still think your particular criticism of nickLW’s point is misplaced. Assuming that he’s referencing the intellectual heft and success of the common law tradition, he’s right that there’s a fair amount of heft there, regardless of his overestimate of the raw numbers.
The existence of that heft doesn’t prove what he suggests, but your argument seems to be assaulting the strongest part of his argument by asserting that there has not be a relatively enormous intellectual investment in developing the common law tradition. There has been a very large investment, and the investment has created a powerful institution.
I agree that the common law is a pretty effective legal system, reflecting the work of smart people adjudicating particular cases, and feedback over time (from competition between courts, reversals, reactions to and enforcement difficulties with judgments, and so forth). I would recommend it over civil law for a charter city importing a legal system.
But that’s no reason to exaggerate the underlying mechanisms and virtues. I also think that there is an active tendency in some circles to overhype those virtues, as they are tied to ideological disputes. [Edited to remove political label.]
Perhaps a strong individual claim, but I didn’t see it clearly connected to a conclusion.
I agree with you that it isn’t connected at all with his conclusions. Therefore, challenging it doesn’t challenge his conclusion. Nitpicking something that you think is irrelevant to the opposing side’s conclusion in a debate is logically rude.