impressing top philosophers with his decision theory work,
The TDT paper from 2012 reads like popularization of something, not like normal science paper on some formalized theory. I don’t think impressing ‘top philosophers’ is impressive.
It would be harsh to a graduate student from a top hard science program or law school.
Or to a writer that gets royalties larger than typical lawyer. Or a smart and influential person, e.g. Peter Thiel.
But a blogger that successfully talked small-ish percentage of people he could reach, into giving him money for work on AI? That’s hardly the evidence to sway 0.0001 prior. I do concede though that median lawyer might be unable to do that (but I dunno—only small percentage would be self deluded or bad enough to try). The world is full of pseudoscientists, cranks, and hustlers that manage this, and more, and who do not seem to be particularly bright.
The TDT paper from 2012 reads like popularization of something, not like normal science paper on some formalized theory. I don’t think impressing ‘top philosophers’ is impressive.
Or to a writer that gets royalties larger than typical lawyer. Or a smart and influential person, e.g. Peter Thiel.
But a blogger that successfully talked small-ish percentage of people he could reach, into giving him money for work on AI? That’s hardly the evidence to sway 0.0001 prior. I do concede though that median lawyer might be unable to do that (but I dunno—only small percentage would be self deluded or bad enough to try). The world is full of pseudoscientists, cranks, and hustlers that manage this, and more, and who do not seem to be particularly bright.