I don’t really know if this counts as the planning fallacy. As I understand it, the planning fallacy is when you underestimate the time it takes to do a specific task. This was more like overestimating my energy and willpower, and therefore the amount of time I would be able to work in any given day.
For the purposes of diagnosing planning fallacy, time doesn’t mean time spent, it means total time. Quote from the Wikipedia article:
In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days.
That’s not 33.9 days of continuous work. Underestimating how much time you have available per day to work on a project counts as planning fallacy.
My understanding is that the planning fallacy is just not taking the outside view, for whatever it is. Depending on your past experiences, you may or may not have fallen prey to it.
Note: Firstorderpredicate’s response isn’t as condescending as it sounds, it’s a Methods of Rationality quote.
I don’t really know if this counts as the planning fallacy. As I understand it, the planning fallacy is when you underestimate the time it takes to do a specific task. This was more like overestimating my energy and willpower, and therefore the amount of time I would be able to work in any given day.
For the purposes of diagnosing planning fallacy, time doesn’t mean time spent, it means total time. Quote from the Wikipedia article:
That’s not 33.9 days of continuous work. Underestimating how much time you have available per day to work on a project counts as planning fallacy.
Fair enough.
My understanding is that the planning fallacy is just not taking the outside view, for whatever it is. Depending on your past experiences, you may or may not have fallen prey to it.
Note: Firstorderpredicate’s response isn’t as condescending as it sounds, it’s a Methods of Rationality quote.
Yes. (Spoilers deleted; Awfully sorry)
Dude, spoilers.