Wait are you saying it’s illegible, or just bad? I mean are you saying that you’ve done something impressive and attribute that to doing this—or that you believe someone else has done so—but you can’t share why you think so?
Maybe bad would be a better word. Idk I feel like I have a different way of thinking about such intelligence-explosion-dynamics stuff that most people don’t have (though Eliezer does) and I cannot really describe it all that well and I think it makes sensible predictions but yeah idk I’d stay sceptical given that I’m not that great at saying why I believe what I believe there.
No I don’t know of anyone who did that.
It’s sorta what I’ve been aiming for since very recently and I don’t particularly expect a high chance of success but I’m also not quite +6.3std I think (though I’m only 21 and the worlds where it might succeed are the ones where I continue getting smarter for some time). Maybe I’m wrong but I’d be pretty surprised if sth like that wouldn’t work for someone with +7std.
I mean, I agree that intelligence explosion is a thing, and the thing you described is part of it, and humans can kinda do it, and it helps quite a lot to have more raw cognitive horsepower...
I guess I’m not sure we’re disagreeing about much here, except that
I don’t know why you’re putting some important transition around 6 SDs. I expect that many capabilities will have shitty precursors in people with less native horsepower; I also expect some capabilities will basically not have such precursors, and so will be “transitions”; I just expect there to be enough such things that you wouldn’t see some major transition at one point. I do think there’s an important different between 5.5 SD and 7.5 SD, which is that now you’ve created a human who’s probably smarter than any human who’s ever lived, so you’ve gone from 0 to 1 on some difficult thoughts; but I don’t think that’s special about this range, it would happen at any range.
I think that adding more 6 SD or 7 SD is really important, but you maybe don’t as much? Not sure what you think.
First tbc, I’m always talking about thinkoompf, not just what’s measured by IQ tests but also sanity and even drive.
Idk I’m not at all sure about that but it seems to me like Nate and Eliezer might be a decent chunck more competent than all the other people I’m aware of. So maybe for the current era (by which I mostly mean “after the sequences were published”) it’s like 1 Person (Nate) per decade-or-a-bit-more who becomes really competent, which is very roughly +6std. (EDIT: Retracted because evidence too shaky. It still seems to me like the heavytail of intelligence gets very far very quickly though.)
Like I’d guess before the sequences and without having the strong motivator of needing to save humanity the transition might rather have been +6.4std -- +6.8std. Idk. Though tbc I don’t really expect to be like “yeah maybe from 6.3std it enters a faster improvement curve which is then not changing that much” but more like the curve just getting steeper and steeper very fast without there being a visible kink.
I feel like if we now created someone with +6.3std the person would already become smarter than any person who ever lived because there are certain advantages of being born now which would help a lot for getting up to speed (e.g. the sequences, the Internet).
Wait are you saying it’s illegible, or just bad? I mean are you saying that you’ve done something impressive and attribute that to doing this—or that you believe someone else has done so—but you can’t share why you think so?
Maybe bad would be a better word. Idk I feel like I have a different way of thinking about such intelligence-explosion-dynamics stuff that most people don’t have (though Eliezer does) and I cannot really describe it all that well and I think it makes sensible predictions but yeah idk I’d stay sceptical given that I’m not that great at saying why I believe what I believe there.
No I don’t know of anyone who did that.
It’s sorta what I’ve been aiming for since very recently and I don’t particularly expect a high chance of success but I’m also not quite +6.3std I think (though I’m only 21 and the worlds where it might succeed are the ones where I continue getting smarter for some time). Maybe I’m wrong but I’d be pretty surprised if sth like that wouldn’t work for someone with +7std.
I mean, I agree that intelligence explosion is a thing, and the thing you described is part of it, and humans can kinda do it, and it helps quite a lot to have more raw cognitive horsepower...
I guess I’m not sure we’re disagreeing about much here, except that
I don’t know why you’re putting some important transition around 6 SDs. I expect that many capabilities will have shitty precursors in people with less native horsepower; I also expect some capabilities will basically not have such precursors, and so will be “transitions”; I just expect there to be enough such things that you wouldn’t see some major transition at one point. I do think there’s an important different between 5.5 SD and 7.5 SD, which is that now you’ve created a human who’s probably smarter than any human who’s ever lived, so you’ve gone from 0 to 1 on some difficult thoughts; but I don’t think that’s special about this range, it would happen at any range.
I think that adding more 6 SD or 7 SD is really important, but you maybe don’t as much? Not sure what you think.
First tbc, I’m always talking about thinkoompf, not just what’s measured by IQ tests but also sanity and even drive.
Idk I’m not at all sure about that but it seems to me like Nate and Eliezer might be a decent chunck more competent than all the other people I’m aware of. So maybe for the current era (by which I mostly mean “after the sequences were published”) it’s like 1 Person (Nate) per decade-or-a-bit-more who becomes really competent, which is very roughly +6std.(EDIT: Retracted because evidence too shaky. It still seems to me like the heavytail of intelligence gets very far very quickly though.)Like I’d guess before the sequences and without having the strong motivator of needing to save humanity the transition might rather have been +6.4std -- +6.8std. Idk. Though tbc I don’t really expect to be like “yeah maybe from 6.3std it enters a faster improvement curve which is then not changing that much” but more like the curve just getting steeper and steeper very fast without there being a visible kink.
I feel like if we now created someone with +6.3std the person would already become smarter than any person who ever lived because there are certain advantages of being born now which would help a lot for getting up to speed (e.g. the sequences, the Internet).