I mean, I agree that intelligence explosion is a thing, and the thing you described is part of it, and humans can kinda do it, and it helps quite a lot to have more raw cognitive horsepower...
I guess I’m not sure we’re disagreeing about much here, except that
I don’t know why you’re putting some important transition around 6 SDs. I expect that many capabilities will have shitty precursors in people with less native horsepower; I also expect some capabilities will basically not have such precursors, and so will be “transitions”; I just expect there to be enough such things that you wouldn’t see some major transition at one point. I do think there’s an important different between 5.5 SD and 7.5 SD, which is that now you’ve created a human who’s probably smarter than any human who’s ever lived, so you’ve gone from 0 to 1 on some difficult thoughts; but I don’t think that’s special about this range, it would happen at any range.
I think that adding more 6 SD or 7 SD is really important, but you maybe don’t as much? Not sure what you think.
First tbc, I’m always talking about thinkoompf, not just what’s measured by IQ tests but also sanity and even drive.
Idk I’m not at all sure about that but it seems to me like Nate and Eliezer might be a decent chunck more competent than all the other people I’m aware of. So maybe for the current era (by which I mostly mean “after the sequences were published”) it’s like 1 Person (Nate) per decade-or-a-bit-more who becomes really competent, which is very roughly +6std. (EDIT: Retracted because evidence too shaky. It still seems to me like the heavytail of intelligence gets very far very quickly though.)
Like I’d guess before the sequences and without having the strong motivator of needing to save humanity the transition might rather have been +6.4std -- +6.8std. Idk. Though tbc I don’t really expect to be like “yeah maybe from 6.3std it enters a faster improvement curve which is then not changing that much” but more like the curve just getting steeper and steeper very fast without there being a visible kink.
I feel like if we now created someone with +6.3std the person would already become smarter than any person who ever lived because there are certain advantages of being born now which would help a lot for getting up to speed (e.g. the sequences, the Internet).
I mean, I agree that intelligence explosion is a thing, and the thing you described is part of it, and humans can kinda do it, and it helps quite a lot to have more raw cognitive horsepower...
I guess I’m not sure we’re disagreeing about much here, except that
I don’t know why you’re putting some important transition around 6 SDs. I expect that many capabilities will have shitty precursors in people with less native horsepower; I also expect some capabilities will basically not have such precursors, and so will be “transitions”; I just expect there to be enough such things that you wouldn’t see some major transition at one point. I do think there’s an important different between 5.5 SD and 7.5 SD, which is that now you’ve created a human who’s probably smarter than any human who’s ever lived, so you’ve gone from 0 to 1 on some difficult thoughts; but I don’t think that’s special about this range, it would happen at any range.
I think that adding more 6 SD or 7 SD is really important, but you maybe don’t as much? Not sure what you think.
First tbc, I’m always talking about thinkoompf, not just what’s measured by IQ tests but also sanity and even drive.
Idk I’m not at all sure about that but it seems to me like Nate and Eliezer might be a decent chunck more competent than all the other people I’m aware of. So maybe for the current era (by which I mostly mean “after the sequences were published”) it’s like 1 Person (Nate) per decade-or-a-bit-more who becomes really competent, which is very roughly +6std.(EDIT: Retracted because evidence too shaky. It still seems to me like the heavytail of intelligence gets very far very quickly though.)Like I’d guess before the sequences and without having the strong motivator of needing to save humanity the transition might rather have been +6.4std -- +6.8std. Idk. Though tbc I don’t really expect to be like “yeah maybe from 6.3std it enters a faster improvement curve which is then not changing that much” but more like the curve just getting steeper and steeper very fast without there being a visible kink.
I feel like if we now created someone with +6.3std the person would already become smarter than any person who ever lived because there are certain advantages of being born now which would help a lot for getting up to speed (e.g. the sequences, the Internet).