After the hospitals fill up, the COVID-19 death rate is going to get a lot higher. How much higher? What’s the fatality rate from untreated COVID-19?
This article may be an answer: it lumps together ICU, mechanical ventilation, and death into a “primary composite end point”. That seems like an OK proxy for “death without treatment”, right?
If so, Table 1 suggests fatality rate of 6% overall, 0% ages 0-14, 2% ages 15-49, 7% ages 50-64, 21% ages 65+. There’s more in the table about pre-existing conditions and so on.
(ETA one more: 2.5% for people of all ages with no preexisting condition.)
Thoughts? Any other data?
(ETA: This should be viewed as a lower bound on fatality rate, see comments.)
Look at Table 3, most people in the study received some kind of treatment, in particular 40% received oxygen. You can’t figure out the untreated fatality rate from this.
Interesting list of treatments. I’m a bit confused why a majority needed antibiotics, for example. I guess the virus opens the door for bacterial infections...?
I thought pneumonia was a condition / symptom / cluster of symptoms, not a disease. You can have pneumonia caused by COVID-19, or pneumonia caused by a bacterial infection, or pneumonia caused by some other viral infection, etc. It’s confusing because there’s a so-called “pneumonia vaccine”. It’s really a “vaccine against a particular bacterial infection that often causes pneumonia”. You can correct me if I’m wrong :)
Having a respiratory infection makes you much more vulnerable to bacterial pneumonia secondary infection which is what is being seen in a lot of the deadly cases.
This not-particularly-reliable source says “So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality”. So … I guess the doctors were giving antibiotics as a preventive measure that turned out to be unnecessary? Maybe??
It seems to be a good paper to consider, which I hadn’t seen before.
This article may be an answer: it lumps together ICU, ventilation, and death into a “primary composite end point”. That seems like an OK proxy for “death without treatment”, right?
The number of people reaching “primary composite end point” would also probably increase without treatment though, so it can only serve as a lower bound. The same table gives 15.7% as “severe cases”, so 6-16% seems a reasonable range, which is not too different from 5-20% I estimated earlier.
After the hospitals fill up, the COVID-19 death rate is going to get a lot higher. How much higher? What’s the fatality rate from untreated COVID-19?
This article may be an answer: it lumps together ICU, mechanical ventilation, and death into a “primary composite end point”. That seems like an OK proxy for “death without treatment”, right?
If so, Table 1 suggests fatality rate of 6% overall, 0% ages 0-14, 2% ages 15-49, 7% ages 50-64, 21% ages 65+. There’s more in the table about pre-existing conditions and so on.
(ETA one more: 2.5% for people of all ages with no preexisting condition.)
Thoughts? Any other data?
(ETA: This should be viewed as a lower bound on fatality rate, see comments.)
Look at Table 3, most people in the study received some kind of treatment, in particular 40% received oxygen. You can’t figure out the untreated fatality rate from this.
Missed that! Thanks! I agree. It’s a lower bound.
Interesting list of treatments. I’m a bit confused why a majority needed antibiotics, for example. I guess the virus opens the door for bacterial infections...?
pneumonia comorbid in a huge number of cases.
I thought pneumonia was a condition / symptom / cluster of symptoms, not a disease. You can have pneumonia caused by COVID-19, or pneumonia caused by a bacterial infection, or pneumonia caused by some other viral infection, etc. It’s confusing because there’s a so-called “pneumonia vaccine”. It’s really a “vaccine against a particular bacterial infection that often causes pneumonia”. You can correct me if I’m wrong :)
Having a respiratory infection makes you much more vulnerable to bacterial pneumonia secondary infection which is what is being seen in a lot of the deadly cases.
This not-particularly-reliable source says “So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality”. So … I guess the doctors were giving antibiotics as a preventive measure that turned out to be unnecessary? Maybe??
Thanks for explaining!!
For cases receiving antibiotics I would want to distinguish between prophylactic and therapeutic prescribing.
Are they being given “just in case” or are they being used to treat a bacterial infection (confirmed by testing)?
The general health/disease history and current medications of the patients most affected should also be considered when looking at the stats.
It seems to be a good paper to consider, which I hadn’t seen before.
The number of people reaching “primary composite end point” would also probably increase without treatment though, so it can only serve as a lower bound. The same table gives 15.7% as “severe cases”, so 6-16% seems a reasonable range, which is not too different from 5-20% I estimated earlier.
Good point. Thanks!