It seems to be a good paper to consider, which I hadn’t seen before.
This article may be an answer: it lumps together ICU, ventilation, and death into a “primary composite end point”. That seems like an OK proxy for “death without treatment”, right?
The number of people reaching “primary composite end point” would also probably increase without treatment though, so it can only serve as a lower bound. The same table gives 15.7% as “severe cases”, so 6-16% seems a reasonable range, which is not too different from 5-20% I estimated earlier.
It seems to be a good paper to consider, which I hadn’t seen before.
The number of people reaching “primary composite end point” would also probably increase without treatment though, so it can only serve as a lower bound. The same table gives 15.7% as “severe cases”, so 6-16% seems a reasonable range, which is not too different from 5-20% I estimated earlier.
Good point. Thanks!