The communication about what happens when Ukraine gets attacked and the communication about what happens when Taiwan gets attacked by the US are different.
Biden didn’t say anything about defending Ukraine with US troops. Biden did say that Taiwan would be defended with US troops. Taiwan is much more important to US interests than Ukraine is.
I agree with that. But that’s separate from what I’m discussing here. I’m not saying an invasion of Taiwan is overall likely, or wise for the CCP to do; I’m saying that the invasion of Ukraine should update the CCP towards invading Taiwan. Biden’s statements should obviously update them away.
Updates come from reality playing out differently than you expected. Without knowing the models that someone has it’s hard to say how they should update based on events happening.
The Chinese are going to have a bunch of scenarios mapped out in which the US would or wouldn’t respond militarily and those rest on assumptions about how the US makes decisions. I don’t think that the US response to Ukraine invalidates any of the assumptions that CCP models of the world in which the US retaliates militarily.
The communication about what happens when Ukraine gets attacked and the communication about what happens when Taiwan gets attacked by the US are different.
Biden didn’t say anything about defending Ukraine with US troops. Biden did say that Taiwan would be defended with US troops. Taiwan is much more important to US interests than Ukraine is.
I agree with that. But that’s separate from what I’m discussing here. I’m not saying an invasion of Taiwan is overall likely, or wise for the CCP to do; I’m saying that the invasion of Ukraine should update the CCP towards invading Taiwan. Biden’s statements should obviously update them away.
Updates come from reality playing out differently than you expected. Without knowing the models that someone has it’s hard to say how they should update based on events happening.
The Chinese are going to have a bunch of scenarios mapped out in which the US would or wouldn’t respond militarily and those rest on assumptions about how the US makes decisions. I don’t think that the US response to Ukraine invalidates any of the assumptions that CCP models of the world in which the US retaliates militarily.