Also, unfortunately, since posting this comment, the last week’s worth of evidence does make me think that 5-15 year timelines are the most plausible, and so I am much more focused on those.
Specifically, I think it’s time to pull the fire alarm and do mass within-elite advocacy.
Cut and paste? But yes, it’s panic or death. And probably death anyway. Nice to get a bit of panic in first if we can though! Good luck with stirring it.
I found your earlier comment in this thread insightful and I think it would be really valuable to know what evidence convinced you of these timelines. If you don’t have time to summarize in a post, is there anything you could link to?
Note also that I would still endorse these actions (since they’re still necessary even with shorter timelines) but they need to be done much faster and so we need to be much more aggressive.
I’m not sure how to do that?
Also, unfortunately, since posting this comment, the last week’s worth of evidence does make me think that 5-15 year timelines are the most plausible, and so I am much more focused on those.
Specifically, I think it’s time to pull the fire alarm and do mass within-elite advocacy.
Cut and paste? But yes, it’s panic or death. And probably death anyway. Nice to get a bit of panic in first if we can though! Good luck with stirring it.
I found your earlier comment in this thread insightful and I think it would be really valuable to know what evidence convinced you of these timelines. If you don’t have time to summarize in a post, is there anything you could link to?
Yep, just posted it: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wrkEnGrTTrM2mnmGa/it-s-time-for-ea-leadership-to-pull-the-fast-takeoff-fire
Note also that I would still endorse these actions (since they’re still necessary even with shorter timelines) but they need to be done much faster and so we need to be much more aggressive.