is there a handy label for “crux(es) on which i’m maximally uncertain”? there are infinite cruxes that i have for any decision, but the ones i care about are the ones about which i’m most uncertain. it’d be nice to have a reference-able label for this concept, but i haven’t seen one anywhere.
there’s also an annoying issue that feels analogous to “elasticity” — how much does a marginal change in my doxastic attitude toward my belief in some crux affect my conative attitude toward the decision?
if no such concepts exist for either, i’d propose: crux uncertainty, crux elasticity (respectively)
Crux elasticity might be better phrased as ‘crux sensitivity’. There is a large literature on Sensitivity Analysis, which gets at how much a change in a given input changes an output.
I’d wager saying ‘my most sensitive crux is X’ gets the meaning across with less explanation, whereas elasticity requires some background econ knowledge.
I’ve sometimes used “crux weight” for a related but different concept—how important that crux is to a decision. I’d propose “crux belief strength” for your topic—that part of it fits very well into a Bayesean framework for evidence.
Most decisions (for me, as far as I can tell) are overdetermined—there are multiple cruxes, with different weights and credences, which add up to more than 51% “best”. They’re inter-correlated, but not perfectly, so it’s REALLY tricky to be very explicit or legible in advance what would actually change my mind.
is there a handy label for “crux(es) on which i’m maximally uncertain”? there are infinite cruxes that i have for any decision, but the ones i care about are the ones about which i’m most uncertain. it’d be nice to have a reference-able label for this concept, but i haven’t seen one anywhere.
there’s also an annoying issue that feels analogous to “elasticity” — how much does a marginal change in my doxastic attitude toward my belief in some crux affect my conative attitude toward the decision?
if no such concepts exist for either, i’d propose: crux uncertainty, crux elasticity (respectively)
Crux elasticity might be better phrased as ‘crux sensitivity’. There is a large literature on Sensitivity Analysis, which gets at how much a change in a given input changes an output.
I’d wager saying ‘my most sensitive crux is X’ gets the meaning across with less explanation, whereas elasticity requires some background econ knowledge.
ohh, this is great — agreed on all fronts. thanks shri!
I’ve sometimes used “crux weight” for a related but different concept—how important that crux is to a decision. I’d propose “crux belief strength” for your topic—that part of it fits very well into a Bayesean framework for evidence.
Most decisions (for me, as far as I can tell) are overdetermined—there are multiple cruxes, with different weights and credences, which add up to more than 51% “best”. They’re inter-correlated, but not perfectly, so it’s REALLY tricky to be very explicit or legible in advance what would actually change my mind.