the easiest way to point out why they are dumb is with counterexamples. We can quickly “see” the counterexamples. E.g., if you’re trying to see AGI as the next step in capitalism, you’ll be able to find counterexamples where things become altogether different (misaligned AI killing everything; singleton that brings an end to the need to compete).
I’m not sure how this would actually work. The proponent of the AGI-capitalism analogy might say “ah yes, AGI killing everyone is another data point on the trend of capitalism becoming increasingly destructive”. Or they might say (as Marx did) that capitalism contains the seeds of its own destruction. Or they might just deny that AGI will play out the way you claim, because their analogy to capitalism is more persuasive than your analogy to humans (or whatever other reasoning you’re using). How do you then classify this as a counterexample rather than a “non-central (but still valid) manifestation of the theory”?
My broader point is that these types of theories are usually sufficiently flexible that they can “predict” most outcomes, which is why it’s so important to pin them down by forcing them to make advance predictions.
On the rest of your comment, +1. I think that one of the weakest parts of Eliezer’s argument was when he appealed to the difference between von Neumann and the village idiot in trying to explain why the next step above humans will be much more consequentialist than most humans (although unfortunately I failed to pursue this point much in the dialogue).
How do you then classify this as a counterexample rather than a “non-central (but still valid) manifestation of the theory”?
My only reply is “You know it when you see it.” And yeah, a crackpot would reason the same way, but non-modest epistemology says that if it’s obvious to you that you’re not a crackpot then you have to operate on the assumption that you’re not a crackpot. (In the alternative scenario, you won’t have much impact anyway.)
Specifically, the situation I mean is the following:
You have an epistemic track record like Eliezer or someone making lots of highly upvoted posts in our communities.
You find yourself having strong intuitions about how to apply powerful principles like “consequentialism” to new domains, and your intuitions are strong because it feels to you like you have a gears-level understanding that others lack. You trust your intuitions in cases like these.
My recommended policy in cases where this applies is “trust your intuitions and operate on the assumption that you’re not a crackpot.”
Maybe there’s a potential crux here about how much of scientific knowledge is dependent on successful predictions. In my view, the sequences have convincingly argued that locating the hypothesis in the first place is often done in the absence of already successful predictions, which goes to show that there’s a core of “good reasoning” that lets you jump to (tentative) conclusions, or at least good guesses, much faster than if you were to try lots of things at random.
My recommended policy in cases where this applies is “trust your intuitions and operate on the assumption that you’re not a crackpot.”
Oh, certainly Eliezer should trust his intuitions and believe that he’s not a crackpot. But I’m not arguing about what the person with the theory should believe, I’m arguing about what outside observers should believe, if they don’t have enough time to fully download and evaluate the relevant intuitions. Asking the person with the theory to give evidence that their intuitions track reality isn’t modest epistemology.
I’m not sure how this would actually work. The proponent of the AGI-capitalism analogy might say “ah yes, AGI killing everyone is another data point on the trend of capitalism becoming increasingly destructive”. Or they might say (as Marx did) that capitalism contains the seeds of its own destruction. Or they might just deny that AGI will play out the way you claim, because their analogy to capitalism is more persuasive than your analogy to humans (or whatever other reasoning you’re using). How do you then classify this as a counterexample rather than a “non-central (but still valid) manifestation of the theory”?
My broader point is that these types of theories are usually sufficiently flexible that they can “predict” most outcomes, which is why it’s so important to pin them down by forcing them to make advance predictions.
On the rest of your comment, +1. I think that one of the weakest parts of Eliezer’s argument was when he appealed to the difference between von Neumann and the village idiot in trying to explain why the next step above humans will be much more consequentialist than most humans (although unfortunately I failed to pursue this point much in the dialogue).
My only reply is “You know it when you see it.” And yeah, a crackpot would reason the same way, but non-modest epistemology says that if it’s obvious to you that you’re not a crackpot then you have to operate on the assumption that you’re not a crackpot. (In the alternative scenario, you won’t have much impact anyway.)
Specifically, the situation I mean is the following:
You have an epistemic track record like Eliezer or someone making lots of highly upvoted posts in our communities.
You find yourself having strong intuitions about how to apply powerful principles like “consequentialism” to new domains, and your intuitions are strong because it feels to you like you have a gears-level understanding that others lack. You trust your intuitions in cases like these.
My recommended policy in cases where this applies is “trust your intuitions and operate on the assumption that you’re not a crackpot.”
Maybe there’s a potential crux here about how much of scientific knowledge is dependent on successful predictions. In my view, the sequences have convincingly argued that locating the hypothesis in the first place is often done in the absence of already successful predictions, which goes to show that there’s a core of “good reasoning” that lets you jump to (tentative) conclusions, or at least good guesses, much faster than if you were to try lots of things at random.
Oh, certainly Eliezer should trust his intuitions and believe that he’s not a crackpot. But I’m not arguing about what the person with the theory should believe, I’m arguing about what outside observers should believe, if they don’t have enough time to fully download and evaluate the relevant intuitions. Asking the person with the theory to give evidence that their intuitions track reality isn’t modest epistemology.