My recommended policy in cases where this applies is “trust your intuitions and operate on the assumption that you’re not a crackpot.”
Oh, certainly Eliezer should trust his intuitions and believe that he’s not a crackpot. But I’m not arguing about what the person with the theory should believe, I’m arguing about what outside observers should believe, if they don’t have enough time to fully download and evaluate the relevant intuitions. Asking the person with the theory to give evidence that their intuitions track reality isn’t modest epistemology.
Oh, certainly Eliezer should trust his intuitions and believe that he’s not a crackpot. But I’m not arguing about what the person with the theory should believe, I’m arguing about what outside observers should believe, if they don’t have enough time to fully download and evaluate the relevant intuitions. Asking the person with the theory to give evidence that their intuitions track reality isn’t modest epistemology.