A big obstacle to human cooperation is bargaining: deciding how to split the benefit from cooperation. If it didn’t exist, I think humans would cooperate more. But the same obstacle also applies to AIs. Sure, there’s a general argument that AIs will outperform humans at all tasks and bargaining too, but I’d like to understand it more specifically. Do you have any mechanisms in mind that would make bargaining easier for AIs?
A big obstacle to human cooperation is bargaining: deciding how to split the benefit from cooperation. If it didn’t exist, I think humans would cooperate more.
Can you give some examples of where human cooperation is mainly being stopped by difficulty with bargaining? It seems to me like enforcing deals is usually the bigger part of the problem. For example in large companies there are a lot of inefficiencies like shirking, monitoring costs to reduce shirking, political infighting, empire building, CYA, red tape, etc., which get worse as companies get bigger. It sure seems like enforcement (i.e., there’s no way to enforce a deal where everyone agrees to stop doing these things) rather than bargaining is the main problem there.
Or consider the inefficiencies in academia, where people often focus more on getting papers published than working on the most important problems. I think that’s mainly because an agreement to reward people for publishing papers is easily enforceable and while an agreement to reward people for working on the most important problems isn’t. I don’t see how improved bargaining would solve this problem.
Do you have any mechanisms in mind that would make bargaining easier for AIs?
I haven’t thought about this much, but perhaps if AIs had introspective access to their utility functions, that would make it easier for them to make use of formal bargaining solutions that take utility functions as inputs? Generally it seems likely that AIs will be better at bargaining than humans, for the same kind of reason as here, but AFAICT just making enforcement easier would probably suffice to greatly reduce coordination costs.
Can you give some examples of where human cooperation is mainly being stopped by difficulty with bargaining?
Two kids fighting over a toy; a married couple arguing about who should do the dishes; war.
But now I think I can answer my own question. War only happens if two agents don’t have common knowledge about who would win (otherwise they’d agree to skip the costs of war). So if AIs are better than humans at establishing that kind of common knowledge, that makes bargaining failure less likely.
War only happens if two agents don’t have common knowledge about who would win (otherwise they’d agree to skip the costs of war).
But that assumes strong ability to enforcement agreements (which humans typically don’t have). For example suppose it’s common knowledge that if countries A and B went to war, A would conquer B with probability .9 and it would cost each side $1 trillion. If they could enforce agreements, then they could agree to roll a 10-sided die in place of the war and save $1 trillion each, but if they couldn’t, then A would go to war with B anyway if it lost the roll, so now B has a .99 probability of being taken over. Alternatively maybe B agrees to be taken over by A with certainty but get some compensation to cover the .1 chance that it doesn’t lose the war. But after taking over B, A could just expropriate all of B’s property including the compensation that it paid.
War only happens if two agents don’t have common knowledge about who would win (otherwise they’d agree to skip the costs of war).
They might also have poorly aligned incentives, like a war between two countries that allows both governments to gain power and prestige, at the cost of destruction that is borne by the ordinary people of both countries. But this sort of principle-agent problem also seems like something AIs should be better at dealing with.
Not only of who would win, but also about the costs it would have. I think the difficulty in establishing common knowledge about this is in part due to people traing to deceive each other. Its not clear that the ability to see through deception improves faster than the ability to deceive with increasing intelligence.
A big obstacle to human cooperation is bargaining: deciding how to split the benefit from cooperation. If it didn’t exist, I think humans would cooperate more. But the same obstacle also applies to AIs. Sure, there’s a general argument that AIs will outperform humans at all tasks and bargaining too, but I’d like to understand it more specifically. Do you have any mechanisms in mind that would make bargaining easier for AIs?
Can you give some examples of where human cooperation is mainly being stopped by difficulty with bargaining? It seems to me like enforcing deals is usually the bigger part of the problem. For example in large companies there are a lot of inefficiencies like shirking, monitoring costs to reduce shirking, political infighting, empire building, CYA, red tape, etc., which get worse as companies get bigger. It sure seems like enforcement (i.e., there’s no way to enforce a deal where everyone agrees to stop doing these things) rather than bargaining is the main problem there.
Or consider the inefficiencies in academia, where people often focus more on getting papers published than working on the most important problems. I think that’s mainly because an agreement to reward people for publishing papers is easily enforceable and while an agreement to reward people for working on the most important problems isn’t. I don’t see how improved bargaining would solve this problem.
I haven’t thought about this much, but perhaps if AIs had introspective access to their utility functions, that would make it easier for them to make use of formal bargaining solutions that take utility functions as inputs? Generally it seems likely that AIs will be better at bargaining than humans, for the same kind of reason as here, but AFAICT just making enforcement easier would probably suffice to greatly reduce coordination costs.
Two kids fighting over a toy; a married couple arguing about who should do the dishes; war.
But now I think I can answer my own question. War only happens if two agents don’t have common knowledge about who would win (otherwise they’d agree to skip the costs of war). So if AIs are better than humans at establishing that kind of common knowledge, that makes bargaining failure less likely.
But that assumes strong ability to enforcement agreements (which humans typically don’t have). For example suppose it’s common knowledge that if countries A and B went to war, A would conquer B with probability .9 and it would cost each side $1 trillion. If they could enforce agreements, then they could agree to roll a 10-sided die in place of the war and save $1 trillion each, but if they couldn’t, then A would go to war with B anyway if it lost the roll, so now B has a .99 probability of being taken over. Alternatively maybe B agrees to be taken over by A with certainty but get some compensation to cover the .1 chance that it doesn’t lose the war. But after taking over B, A could just expropriate all of B’s property including the compensation that it paid.
They might also have poorly aligned incentives, like a war between two countries that allows both governments to gain power and prestige, at the cost of destruction that is borne by the ordinary people of both countries. But this sort of principle-agent problem also seems like something AIs should be better at dealing with.
Not only of who would win, but also about the costs it would have. I think the difficulty in establishing common knowledge about this is in part due to people traing to deceive each other. Its not clear that the ability to see through deception improves faster than the ability to deceive with increasing intelligence.